Fundamentals · AXP
Distress (Altman-Z + Piotroski-F) for AXP
AI-generated plain-English read of distress (altman-z + piotroski-f) for AXP. Updated daily.
Mixed signals, deteriorating
highThe bankruptcy risk score says distress (Z=0.65) but the operational health score says strong (7/9) — likely a balance-sheet snapshot anomaly; watch the next earnings for resolution.
What will probably happen
- The two signals pulling in opposite directions usually means one of: (1) a one-time balance sheet event skewed the bankruptcy risk score, (2) the operational health score hasn't yet reflected a deteriorating fundamental trend, or (3) the company is in a sector where the bankruptcy risk score model doesn't apply cleanly.
- Monitor next earnings — convergence of the two signals (either both improve or both worsen) is the confirming catalyst.
What to do
- If you HOLD this stock
- Hold but watch — the conflicting signals mean the next earnings print is the tie-breaker. Set a price alert at the Z=1.81 level.
- If you are EVALUATING this stock
- Don't initiate new positions until the two signals converge — disagreement is not a green light; it's a 'wait for more data' signal.
- If you trade OPTIONS
- Uncertainty premium may be priced in — selling straddles is ill-advised when the fundamental read is this uncertain. Long premium through earnings makes more structural sense.
Both scores present with ≥3 periods of bankruptcy risk history.
Technical details
Technical analysis
- Trend
- deteriorating
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Agreement
- disagreement
- Prior-period avg Z
- 0.97
- Bankruptcy risk score (Altman-Z)
- 0.65 (distress zone)
- Operational health score (Piotroski-F)
- 7/9 (Strong (7-9)) — profitability 4/4; leverage 2/3; efficiency 1/2
Key levels
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| latest z | 0.65 |
| prior avg z | 0.973 |
| piotroski score | 7 |
| altman safe threshold | 2.99 |
| altman distress threshold | 1.81 |