Chart & Technical · HD
Strategy Cup Tier for HD
AI-generated plain-English read of strategy cup tier for HD. Updated daily.
Marginal tier — validated but modest edge
lowThe strategy beats buy-and-hold by an unknown margin — a modest edge that, unusually, is statistically validated. Likely a low-variance, low-alpha strategy worth running at small size.
What will probably happen
- Marginal cup-2 edge: the strategy has some alpha but it may not survive real-world costs. Use only in combination with other filters.
- 10-29 trades — the sample is thin. Percentile statistics are noisy and overfit risk is elevated.
What to do
- If you HOLD this stock and follow this strategy
- Marginal edge — keep position size small. This is a background strategy, not a core holding.
- If you're EVALUATING whether to use this strategy
- Marginal cup-2 grade — don't allocate real capital. The edge is too small to clear transaction costs reliably.
- If you trade OPTIONS on this strategy's signals
- Marginal cup-2 strategies are too noisy to anchor options trades. Avoid using signals as a primary directional bias.
Insufficient credibility signals — not enough data quality to confirm the edge.
Technical details
Technical analysis
- Cup tier
- cup_2 (marginal)
- Robustness
- Moderate Stability
- Tier grade
- Marginal
- Trade count
- 29
- MC significant
- Yes
- Sample quality
- Small Sample
- Validation window
- —
- Statistical support
- Statistically Validated
- Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR)
- 0.928
- Delta return vs buy-and-hold
- —
- Walk-forward stability score
- 0.63
Key levels
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| dsr | 0.928 |
| cup tier | 2 |
| num trades | 29 |
| robustness score | 0.628 |
Caveats
- Cup tiers reflect val-window performance. Live forward returns may differ from backtest — even validated strategies have drawdown risk.