Chart & Technical · LLY

Risk Snapshot for LLY

AI-generated plain-English read of risk snapshot for LLY. Updated daily.

Elevated vol, standard drawdown, recovered

high

Elevated volatility with standard drawdown depth, and price has recovered to near highs. The rough patch is behind it; risk is live but manageable if sized for elevated vol.

What will probably happen

  • Above-average volatility: expect more frequent and larger daily moves than the S&P 500. Risk management should be active, not passive.
  • Low beta (<0.6): defensive profile. The stock is less sensitive to market swings, making it a natural portfolio stabilizer.
  • Fat-tail risk detected: the return distribution has heavier-than-normal tails. Losses beyond 2 or 3 standard deviations occur more often than a normal model predicts. Size accordingly and avoid maximum leverage.

What to do

If you HOLD this stock
Risk is in the moderate-to-elevated range. Hold at current size; resist adding until vol or drawdown conditions improve.
If you're EVALUATING this stock
If entering, size smaller than usual: the volatility regime demands wider stops and more margin of safety on the thesis.
If you trade OPTIONS
Elevated vol inflates option premium: favor selling premium (covered calls, cash-secured puts on dips) over buying it. Long vol plays are expensive relative to realized vol history.

All four key fields (volatility, max drawdown, beta, skewness) are populated.

Technical details

Technical analysis

Kurtosis
6.13
Skewness
0.79
Tail risk
Fat Tails
Vol regime
Elevated Vol
Beta profile
Low Beta
Sharpe ratio
--
Drawdown tier
Standard
Sortino ratio
--
Beta vs S&P 500
0.30
Recovery status
Recovered
VaR 95% (daily)
-2.7%
VaR 99% (daily)
-4.2%
Current drawdown
0.0%
Max drawdown (1y)
-23.3%
Downside deviation
--
Annualized volatility
35.2%

Key levels

Key price and metric levels
LevelValue
kurtosis6.13
skewness0.791
var 95 daily-0.027
var 99 daily-0.042
beta vs market0.298
max drawdown 1y-0.233
current drawdown0
annualized volatility0.352

Caveats

  • Risk metrics are historical; tail events outside the lookback window can dwarf observed risk.
  • Fat-tail readings warn of bigger-than-normal-distribution moves; size accordingly.

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