Sentiment · NOC
Government Contracts for NOC
AI-generated plain-English read of government contracts for NOC. Updated daily.
Whale-tier contracts, pace slowing
moderateWhale-scale contracts but award pace is decelerating — likely budget pressure, a program winding down, or loss of recompete. The absolute revenue base remains large, but the trend is cautionary.
What will probably happen
- Slowing award pace is a caution flag — if it continues another quarter, the earnings model may need to trim its government revenue assumption.
- Unknown dominates the award base — this issuer's government revenue is tied to the budget priorities of a single customer. Sensitive to agency-level cuts.
- A single contract ($6.74B) represents a major share of recent awards — non-renewal at recompete would create a sharp revenue cliff.
What to do
- If you HOLD this stock
- Decelerating award flow is a warning sign — tighten your stop or reduce exposure until the deceleration reverses or you identify the cause.
- If you're EVALUATING this stock
- Decelerating government revenue at material scale is a red flag for the earnings model — identify the source of deceleration before initiating.
- If you trade OPTIONS
- Consider protective puts if government revenue is a meaningful earnings component — a further deceleration could surprise estimates.
5 contracts in trailing 12 months — moderate sample size.
Technical details
Technical analysis
- Pace
- Slowing
- Top agency
- Unknown
- Revenue scale
- Whale
- Last 90d awards
- $2.09B
- Prior 90d awards
- $3.92B
- 90d vs 90d change
- -47%
- Trailing-12m total
- $14.81B
- Agency concentration
- Single agency
- Largest single award
- $6.74B
- Contract size profile
- Mega deal
- Trailing-12m contracts
- 5
Key levels
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| total value | 285,550,748,053.6 |
| last 90d total | 2,090,638,953.55 |
| prior 90d total | 3,917,751,814.74 |
| watch threshold | 3,917,751,814.74 |
| largest contract | 6,738,317,172.55 |
| trailing 12m total | 14,808,120,998.28 |
Caveats
- Federal contract awards are CEILING values, not realized revenue. Period-of-performance can span multiple years.
- One agency (Unknown) dominates revenue — issuer is sensitive to that agency's budget priorities (DoD funding cycles, NASA program changes, etc.).
- A single contract ($6.74B) represents a major share of recent awards; non-renewal at recompete would create a sharp revenue cliff.