Chart & Technical · UVXY
Risk Snapshot for UVXY
AI-generated plain-English read of risk snapshot for UVXY. Updated daily.
Inverse-beta: market hedge, not a standard long
highNegative beta is unusual: this name moves opposite to the broad market. It functions as a portfolio hedge rather than a standard long position; expect it to gain when markets fall and lag when markets rally.
What will probably happen
- Negative beta means this name tends to rise when the broad market falls. It can serve as portfolio insurance but will likely underperform in sustained bull markets.
- Verify the beta lookback: inverse correlation can be transitory. If the structural inverse relationship breaks, the hedge value evaporates.
What to do
- If you HOLD this stock
- Negative beta is unusual: verify the lookback window. If you hold for hedging, review the beta periodically; the hedge value may shift. If you hold for directional exposure, re-examine your thesis.
- If you're EVALUATING this stock
- A defensive holding: useful for portfolio insurance in bear markets. Pair with growth/quality reads; don't treat it as a standard long.
- If you trade OPTIONS
- Short delta (puts or bearish spreads) on this name will act as market-neutral or even bullish on the overall portfolio. Long calls here gain when markets fall; factor this into portfolio-level Greeks.
All four key fields (volatility, max drawdown, beta, skewness) are populated.
Technical details
Technical analysis
- Kurtosis
- 15.53
- Skewness
- 1.81
- Tail risk
- Fat Tails
- Vol regime
- Extreme Vol
- Beta profile
- Inverse
- Sharpe ratio
- --
- Drawdown tier
- Severe
- Sortino ratio
- --
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -5.90
- Recovery status
- At Deep Lows
- VaR 95% (daily)
- -7.7%
- VaR 99% (daily)
- -14.1%
- Current drawdown
- -72.6%
- Max drawdown (1y)
- -75.7%
- Downside deviation
- --
- Annualized volatility
- 96.8%
Key levels
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| kurtosis | 15.53 |
| skewness | 1.813 |
| var 95 daily | -0.077 |
| var 99 daily | -0.141 |
| beta vs market | -5.903 |
| max drawdown 1y | -0.757 |
| current drawdown | -0.726 |
| annualized volatility | 0.968 |
Caveats
- Risk metrics are historical; tail events outside the lookback window can dwarf observed risk.
- Fat-tail readings warn of bigger-than-normal-distribution moves; size accordingly.
- Negative beta is unusual; verify the lookback window. It may reflect a specific macro period rather than structural inverse correlation.
- Currently at or near the 1-year worst level (-75.7% max drawdown). Price support from recent history is thin: new lows can produce momentum selling.