Sentiment#78tier 1live in productionNew

`analyst forecast dispersion`

cadence: Annualdata: highlong onlyshort onlylong short

2002

#78 analyst_forecast_dispersion — Diether-Malloy-Scherbina 2002.

Mechanism

Diether, Malloy & Scherbina (2002) *Journal of Finance*, "Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns."

Data dependencies

analyst_estimates
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
target_mean
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
target_high
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

longing bottom-decile delivered ~7-9% annualized — survives Hou-Xue-Zhang (2020) replication because the short-constraint mechanism is structural, not stale arb.

Illustrative pattern only

NOT a backtest

Illustrative pattern only — see /app for live backtests and the actual current equity curve.

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analyst forecast dispersion