Each strategy is built on a documented economic reason a price should move, a clear rule for when to act, and the data it reads. Every one is graded the same way before it is allowed to influence what you see.
Every strategy we run, and the reason it should work.
543 strategies, grouped into 6 families by the kind of signal they read. Each one is tied to published research or a documented market effect. Open any strategy to see what it looks for, the idea behind it, and the data it uses.
Champion Disagreement Filter
We have dozens of in-house champion strategies per ticker. When they all disagree on direction, that disagreement itself flags regime uncertainty — fade extremes.
How it works →Six families of strategies
Triggered by what a company does: earnings surprises, guidance changes, product news, mergers and other corporate events.
Read from the wider world: interest rates, inflation, the Fed, government action and geopolitics that move whole markets.
What the paperwork and the people closest to a company reveal: regulatory filings, insider buying and selling, short interest and who owns the stock.
Signals from outside the market: weather, shipping, crops, consumer demand, web attention and other physical-world measurements.
Read straight from price, volume and volatility, including how a stock trades against the market and its peers.
Strategies that blend several of the others into one signal and switch between them as market conditions change.
How recent is the research?
The oldest idea here dates to 1968, the newest to 2026. 42% are based on work published since 2015, so this is not just textbook history.
Company Events & Earnings
99 strategiesTriggered by what a company does: earnings surprises, guidance changes, product news, mergers and other corporate events.
13d Activist Filing Drift
Activist 13D filing → +12% over 2 years.
13g passive blockholder initiation drift
When a big passive investor newly crosses the 5 percent ownership line and discloses it, the strategy buys the stock for the following weeks.
Activist Pair Revert
Activist-targeted stocks beat their sector for ~12 months, then give some back as the activist exits — we ride both legs as a pair-trade.
Adcomm Split Vote Short
When a drug's FDA review keeps getting delayed (3+ different target dates), we short the sponsor for the next 1-2 months.
Atm Offering Overhang Short
When a firm has both an active shelf and recent private-placement activity, ongoing share issuance creates persistent overhead resistance.
Black Box Warning Short
When a drug accumulates fatal adverse-event reports in a short window (a black-box warning trigger), we short the sponsor for 3-6 months.
Box Office Holiday Window Alpha
When a studio dominates a holiday tentpole weekend (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Memorial Day, July 4), its stock drifts up over the next 10 trading days as analysts price in the captured share of the year's marquee theatrical revenue.
Box Office Long Tail Drift
When a movie has unusually strong "legs" in its second weekend (holding 70%+ of opening), the studio's stock drifts up over the next 2-4 weeks as analysts revise total-revenue estimates higher.
Box Office Opening Drift
When a studio's movie opens way above or way below its recent average, the studio's stock drifts in that direction for about two weeks. We scrape The-Numbers daily box-office, compute the per-distributor surprise z-score, and trade the +/-1.5 SD threshold on…
Buyback Blackout Reopen
Buyback programs stop in the ~30-day pre-earnings blackout, removing a price floor. Short into blackout, long the resumption post-earnings.
Clinical Trial Discontinuation Short
When a drug company publicly terminates or withdraws a late-stage trial, the idea is to short the stock for the next 2-6 months as the lost pipeline value prices in. This signal is currently turned off: our trial data only records each trial's latest status…
Clinical Trial Enrollment Velocity
When a Phase III trial gets terminated or withdrawn, the sponsor's stock tends to drop over 1-3 months. Symmetric for completed-with-results.
Clinicaltrials Phaseiii Readout
When a drug company publicly posts the results of a late-stage (Phase III) trial, bet that its stock drifts down over the following weeks, and hold for about 2 to 8 weeks. The trade waits until the results are actually public before taking any position.
Competitor Bad News Relative Long
When a competitor blows up (bankruptcy, delisting, auditor disagreement), we go LONG the survivors because they pick up the market share.
Convertible Refinancing Distress
When a firm files an 8-K announcing both a material agreement and a new debt obligation in the same window, it usually marks a convertible bond or distressed refi - bearish for equity.
Corporate Jet Acquisition Target Signal
When an acquirer's corporate jet visits the target's HQ region, the target's stock tends to outperform over 2-4 weeks.
Corporate Jet Executive Travel
Tracks corporate aircraft in the air via OpenSky live snapshots (the successor data feed after ADS-B Exchange went paywalled). When a ticker's jets cluster their airborne days, something is happening at the company — go long for a short event window.
Corporate Jet Management Distraction Short
Months when a company's corporate jet flies way more than usual (z >= 2 over 2 years) signal distracted management — short for the next quarter.
Corporate-Jet Lobbying Signal
When a regulated company's corporate jet starts flying to Washington DC more often than usual, a policy or regulatory tailwind is being engineered behind the scenes. We buy that company for one to three months.
Corporate-Jet Merger Signal
If multiple companies' corporate jets land at the same airport within 48 hours and yours is one of them, an M&A is likely brewing. We buy the target's stock and hold for two to four weeks.
Customer Concentration Event Spillover
When our biggest customer (proxied as TNIC peer) has a huge price move, ours follows over 1-3 weeks. Long/short directional.
Dividend Initiation Drift
Companies that pay their first-ever dividend tend to outperform for the next 3-12 months.
Earnings-Announcement Premium
Stocks earn an abnormal positive return in the 2 days before through 1 day after their scheduled earnings — uncertainty resolution premium.
Event Aware
Take any base trend signal and turn it OFF for several days around earnings dates, where price reactions are too noisy/unfair to the rule.
Faers Class Rotation
When a whole drug class has a safety-event spike, we short the worst-hit company and assume the market rotates to alternatives.
Faers Drug Launch Safety Curve
When a newly-approved drug racks up an unusually high adverse-event count in its first 90 days, the FDA tends to add a black-box warning or label change. We short the sponsor before that catches up, holding for one to three months.
Faers Peer Class Rotation
When a peer drug has a safety event, patients rotate to focal's same-indication drug.
Faers Severity Spike Short
Pharma stocks drop after a spike in serious side-effect reports for a marketed drug. Short the day after the 7-day rolling severity z-score crosses +2.
Fast Track Designation Long
When the FDA grants a Fast-Track or Priority Review designation, we go long the sponsor for the next 2-3 months.
Fda Adcomm Pdufa
FDA AdComm + PDUFA target dates are ±15% binary catalysts.
Federal Contract Award Drift
Big federal contract wins quietly preview revenue beats 1-2 quarters out. Long the ticker the day after a top-decile award.
Federal Contract Recompete Risk
When a big government contract is about to end and no renewal has landed yet, the contractor stock often drifts down on recompete risk.
G13 To D13 Conversion Long
When a previously-quiet large shareholder switches to declaring activist intent on a stock, the stock tends to outperform for the next 12 months.
Github Engineering Momentum
When a company's engineering activity on GitHub accelerates (more commits, more stars), the stock tends to outperform over the following 1-6 months.
Guidance Withdrawal 8K Short
When a company formally pulls or suspends guidance, this family treats it as a negative information event and tests the following drift.
index add/drop drift
When a stock is added to or dropped from a major index, the forced buying or selling overshoots, and the price tends to snap back afterward.
Index Deletion Reversal Long
When a stock is removed from a major index, the forced selling temporarily pushes the price too low. Wait 5 days for the press to finish, then go long for 2-6 months as the price partially recovers.
Index-Rebalance Drift
When a stock is added to the S&P 500, index funds must buy it on the effective date — front-runners earn +8% by then. Symmetric -4% on deletions.
Innovative Efficiency Tilt
Companies that generate more patents per R&D dollar outperform those that spend heavily on R&D but produce fewer high-value patents.
IPO Lockup Expiry Short
Standard IPO lockups expire 180 days after the offering. The flood of newly tradable shares from insiders and VCs creates supply pressure, so shorting the stock for 1-3 months after the lockup expires has historically produced consistent drift.
IPO Underpricing Drift
Newly-public stocks underperform for 3y, mainly in months 12-36.
Item 402 Non Reliance
When a company files an 8-K Item 4.02 saying its old financials shouldn't be trusted, the stock drops 8-15% in 3 days.
Item 502 Executive Departure
When a public company files an 8-K saying an executive is leaving, the stock typically drops 3% within 60 days.
Kpss Inno Value Momentum
Companies where the economic value of each new patent is rising (not just the count) compound innovation quality in a way the market underprices.
Late Filing Drift Short
When a company files Form NT (saying they need more time on their 10-K/10-Q), we short the stock for the next 3-9 months because late filers underperform by ~10%.
Layoff-Wave Short
When a public company announces a large layoff, we short it after the announcement and hold for a few weeks.
Lazy Prices Short
The short side of 'lazy prices': firms that rewrote their 10-K heavily YoY underperform by 188 bps/month. Most of the lazy-prices alpha lives on this short leg.
Litigation Shock Short
When a federal lawsuit naming a public company is filed in the categories that historically hurt the most (securities fraud, patent, antitrust), we go short for 1-6 months.
Merger Arbitrage
When a ticker files an 8-K signaling an M&A deal, the stock drifts directionally for 1-3 months as the market re-rates it.
Mohanram G Score
Growth-stock analogue to the Piotroski F-score: an 8-signal quality score that separates winning from losing growth stocks based on profitability, earnings stability, and accounting conservatism in R&D, capex, and SG&A spending.
Multiple Activist Pile On Long
When 2+ different activists file 13D on the same stock within 60 days, the pile-on signal is stronger than a single activist alone.
Nhtsa Recall Drift Short
When NHTSA announces a vehicle recall, we short the manufacturer for the next 1-3 months, weighting by recall size.
Opentable Traffic Consumer Discretionary
When OpenTable seated-diner traffic spikes vs the 2019 baseline, restaurant and travel stocks tend to follow over 5-20 days.
Orphan Drug Premium Long
A firm heuristic: long small biotechs (few Phase III programs) the day after a pivotal trial completion. Loosely motivated by the paper's rare-disease market-size idea, but the paper itself reports no stock-return premium; whether this carries alpha is tested…
Patent Class Peer Spillover
When a peer in our tech cluster has a patent surge, we go long because the innovation tailwind tends to lift the whole class over the next 1-6 months.
Patent Litigation Loss Drift
Patent-lawsuit signal -- currently inactive. We can see which companies are in patent suits but the free CourtListener feed does not tell us who won or the exact verdict date, so we cannot trade the win/lose direction the research describes. The family is…
Patent Npe Attack Short
Patent trolls — shell companies that own patents but don't make anything — sue tech firms to extract settlements. We short the defendant when one of these suits drops because the legal overhang typically depresses the stock for a few months.
Patent Velocity Acceleration
Companies whose patent filing rate is accelerating are investing more in innovation -- and the market is slow to price that in.
Pdufa Extension Short
When the FDA pushes back a drug's review date by a month or more, we short the sponsor for the next few weeks.
Pdufa Label Type Drift
FDA PDUFA approval dates for new drugs (vs label expansions) drive bigger price swings.
Pead Informed Competition
Contreras (2025): PEAD collapses when insiders (Form 4) and short sellers (FINRA short volume) trade the SAME direction right after an earnings surprise (competition accelerates discovery); drift persists where informed flow is absent or co
Pead Price Trend Confirmation
PEAD drift is stronger when the post-announcement price move aligns with the earnings surprise direction.
Pead Text Confirmation
Standard PEAD trades on earnings surprise sign. This version only trades when the management's call tone agrees with the surprise — skips ambiguous prints.
Peer Earnings Shock Propagation
When a TNIC competitor beats (or misses) earnings, the focal stock tends to drift in the same direction before its own announcement.
Peer Price Shock Propagation
When a close TNIC competitor has a large price move, the focal stock tends to follow in the same direction over the next 1-5 days as the market slow-processes the related news.
Polymarket Event Premium
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional…
Polymarket Executive Departure Short
When Polymarket says it's more likely than not that the CEO will leave by date Y, short the stock through resolution. Markets price in the imminent-departure premium before it happens.
Polymarket IV Skew Spread
When prediction markets disagree with options markets on the same event, the cheaper side has the edge. We take the equity position implied by whichever instrument is mispriced lower.
Polymarket MA Close Drift
Polymarket asks 'will the merger close on time?' — if YES is above 75% but the stock is still trading far below the deal price, take the long. Symmetric short when YES drops below 25%.
Polymarket Resolution Drift
In the last 5 days before a polymarket resolves, the YES price often overshoots its all-time fair value. We mean-revert: short when overshot up, long when overshot down.
Post-Earnings Drift
After an earnings beat (vs analyst expectations), the price drifts up over the next 30-60 days — markets are slow to fully digest the surprise.
Private Placement Drift
PIPE financings → distress signal → -23% over 3 years.
Proxy Contest Drift
Proxy fight → +6-8% over a year.
R&D Intensity Growth Momentum
Firms with rapidly rising R&D-to-revenue ratios (above their own 2-year baseline) and a confirming 60-day price uptrend tend to outperform over the next quarter as the market under-prices R&D productivity.
Recall Competitor Benefit Long
When a carmaker's rival has a big recall, we go long the carmaker - its market share tends to grow over the next few weeks.
Recall First Of Model Year
When a carmaker's brand-new model year has its first recall, we short more aggressively - the market reads it as a real design flaw.
Recall Severity Premium
When a carmaker has a recall involving death or injury, we short more aggressively than for routine recalls.
Revision Momentum Confirmation
When both analyst estimate revisions and price momentum point the same direction, the combined drift is more reliable than either signal alone.
Russell Reconstitution Drift
Once a year (late June), small-cap stocks that have grown into mid-cap territory get promoted from the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000. Those promoted names tend to drift up for the next 2-3 months as the largest index-fund flows re-balance. NOTE: requires…
Sales Surprise Drift
Revenue surprises (top-line beats or misses) predict 1-2 month drift, even when EPS surprise is controlled. Standardize the surprise by the firm's own trailing volatility to find the meaningful events.
SEC Shelf Takedown Dilution Pressure
When a firm files to issue new shares from its shelf registration, stock usually drifts down 1-3 months.
Secondary Offering Dilution
Shelf takedown surprise → stock drops 2-4% in a month.
Seo Underperformance
Follow-on stock offerings → 3y underperformance.
Sga Operating Leverage
Companies whose overhead costs (SG&A) are growing faster than revenue are sitting on a hidden problem: when revenue softens, those costs don't drop as fast, so earnings get squeezed. Short the stock when this gap widens beyond 5-10 percentage points.
Share Issuance Anomaly
Companies that have dramatically increased their share count over 5 years tend to underperform (they issued shares when overvalued). Companies that have shrunk their share count via buybacks tend to outperform. Trade the top/bottom deciles of 5y share-count…
Sp500 Inclusion Drift
When a stock is newly added to the S&P 500, it tends to keep drifting up for a month or two after the official inclusion date — index-tilted funds keep buying, and analyst coverage expands. Go long for 30-60 days post-inclusion.
Spin Off Drift
When a company spins off a division, both the parent and the new spin-off tend to outperform their industries for 6-12 months. Index funds dump the new spin-off mechanically, creating a price discount that mean-reverts.
Strategic Friday Pead
Managers schedule bad-news earnings for Friday after-close to dodge attention. The 3-day return around those announcements is significantly negative.
SUE Zscore Drift
PEAD using the standardized SUE z-score instead of raw surprise %. SUE is the academic canonical form — it accounts for how noisy each company's analyst consensus is.
Surprise Acceleration Rs
Stocks where earnings surprises are accelerating quarter-over-quarter while price is trending up show compounding drift.
Surprise Price Reaction Confirmation
When the market's immediate price reaction to an earnings surprise is large and aligned, the subsequent drift is more reliable.
TNIC Earnings Surprise Spillover
When a stock similar to ours beats or misses earnings, ours often drifts in the same direction over the next 1-3 weeks. We position alongside.
TNIC Peer Event Contagion
When a stock similar to ours files an awful 8-K, ours often drifts down too over the next 1-3 weeks. We short alongside.
Trademark Filing Velocity
When a company files an unusual cluster of new trademarks, especially intent-to-use filings, it often signals a product launch and predicts 1-3 month outperformance.
Transcript Numerical Specificity
When management gives unusually concrete numbers on an earnings call, uncertainty can fall. When the call gets vague, that can be a warning sign.
Unchanged-Filing Signal
If a company's 10-K barely changes year-over-year, the business is boring-and-steady and outperforms. Big text changes signal hidden bad news.
Usgs Earthquake Event
M6.0+ earthquake → short P&C insurers 1-15 days.
Usgs Earthquake Regional Drift
Big CA earthquake → CA REITs/banks/utilities drop 1-2 weeks.
Vehicle-Recall Drift
When a carmaker has an unusually large recall wave, we short the stock for the next few weeks.
Economy & Policy
90 strategiesRead from the wider world: interest rates, inflation, the Fed, government action and geopolitics that move whole markets.
Acled Conflict Onset Defense
Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.
Acled Mining Disruption
When violence spikes in major mining regions, metal prices tend to jump and big cross-listed miners rise with them. This family goes long the miner basket on those event spikes.
Acled Oil Supply Shock Long
When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.
Acled Protest Consumer Short
When US protest activity spikes, brick-and-mortar consumer retailers see foot-traffic drop — short the basket for 1-3 months.
Acled Red Sea Freight Premium
When conflict heats up around the Red Sea / Suez (Yemen / Saudi / Egypt), freight rates spike and dry-bulk + tanker stocks rally.
Baa Aaa Quality Spread
The gap between the worst investment-grade corporate bond yield (BAA) and the best (AAA) is the within-IG quality margin. When that gap widens, lower-quality investment-grade corporates underperform for 3 months. Distinct from the BAA-Treasury spread.
Calendar Anomalies
Three calendar quirks: turn-of-month (last/first days outperform), pre-FOMC drift, and day-of-week (Mon weak, Wed-Thu strong).
Congressional Speech Tone
When Congress speaks unusually much in one day, we test whether the burst itself moves any sector the next 5-20 days.
Congressional Trade Cluster
When 2+ members of Congress trade the same stock the same way within a month, we go alongside the cluster because they likely share insider info from hearings.
Congressional Trade Drift
When several different members of Congress disclose buying the same stock within a 90-day window, follow the cluster. When they're selling, fade it. Single trades are noise — clusters of two-plus distinct members carry the signal.
Consumer Sentiment Sector Rotation
When U.Mich. consumer sentiment is rising strongly, retail-leaning names get bid; when falling, defensives win. We overlay that regime signal on each ticker.
Corporate Lobbying X Polymarket
When a company is spending top-quartile money on lobbying AND a polymarket prediction market favours their preferred regulatory outcome, the stock tends to outperform for two to three months. We buy and hold.
Cot Managed Money Extreme Reversal
When managed-money speculators are extremely long a commodity, fade them on the equity proxy — they tend to be wrong at extremes.
Cot Positioning
CFTC weekly: when commercial hedgers are extreme-long crude or gold, the related ETF drifts up 1-3 months.
Credit Spread Shock
Watch the corporate-bond credit spread — when it compresses sharply, high-beta names rip; when it widens sharply, they get hammered. We trade the regime change.
Dollar Factor Betas
Companies with high empirical sensitivity to the dollar suffer when the dollar strengthens (FX translation drag). Domestic-revenue-heavy companies benefit. Compute each ticker's 60-day dollar beta and trade the extremes against USD direction.
Drawdown-Recovery Premium
Stocks that suffered the deepest 1-year drawdowns earn HIGHER subsequent returns — compensation for tail risk.
drift-regime gated value + reversal
Combine cheapness with a short-term bounce signal, but only act on stocks that have been quietly drifting up day after day.
Earnings Revision Reversal
Analyst target revisions drift for ~30 days then stop.
Emfx Basket Signal
High-yield EMFX strengthening → EM stock ETFs rally; collapse → they fall.
Epu Sector Rotation
EPU spike → short cyclicals, long defensives.
Epu Shock Defensives Long
When the Economic Policy Uncertainty index spikes more than 1 standard deviation above its yearly average, investors rotate into defensive stocks (utilities, staples, gold). Go long the defensive basket for 1-3 months.
Euribor US Spread
EU 3M rate over US → short EU country ETFs.
Eurodollar Bank Predictor
When short-term dollar funding stresses, banks underperform 1-3 months.
FED Speech Dovish Long Em
When a Fed official sounds dovish in a speech (top 10% of LM-positive tone scores), emerging-markets stocks (EEM, China internet, LatAm names) tend to rally for 1-2 weeks on softer USD expectations.
FED Speech Tone Intraday
Hawkish Fed speech → SPY/QQQ drift down 1-3 days.
Federal Contract Prime Subcontractor Momentum
When government contract flow surges in a NAICS sector, we go LONG firms in that sector (excluding the direct prime contractor) as subcontractor beneficiaries.
Financial Conditions Regime
The Chicago Fed's NFCI is the most comprehensive single-number measure of financial conditions, combining money market, debt, equity, and shadow-banking signals. When it goes above zero (tight), trim risk; when its adjusted version goes well below zero…
FOMC Hawkish Tone Short Duration
When a Fed voter (Powell, Williams, Waller, etc.) delivers an unusually hawkish speech, long-duration assets — long Treasuries, REITs, high-multiple growth tech — get hit. Short the basket for 1-2 weeks.
Gdelt Event Density Volatility
When global news event volume spikes 2σ above baseline, realized volatility is about to rise — under-weight (short) cyclical and high-beta names for 3-10 days.
Gdelt Event Tone Country Exposure
GDELT scans millions of news stories. Sharply negative US-China headlines → short China-exposed chip stocks for 5 days.
Gdelt Geopolitical Tone Short
When the tone of news about a country tanks (z below -1.5), short the US-listed multinationals with revenue exposure to that country.
Geopolitical Supply Chain Risk
When global news tone, conflict fatalities, port throughput drops, and shipping prices all flash supply-chain stress at the same time, we short the cyclical industrials that depend on global trade for two to three weeks.
Gpr Geopolitical Risk
GPR spikes → long defense/oil/gold over 1-3 months.
Gpr Oil Long
When geopolitical risk spikes, oil prices tend to rise on expected supply disruption. Go long oil majors (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, etc.) for 1-3 months.
Gpr Sector Defense Long
When geopolitical risk spikes (Caldara-Iacoviello GPR index, daily), defense stocks (Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, etc.) outperform on expected procurement budget increases. Go long the defense basket for 1-3 months.
Gpr Threats Acts
GPR-Threats predicts 1-2 month moves; GPR-Acts predicts 1-2 week moves.
Inflation Beta Rotation
Boons, Duarte, de Roon & Szymanowska (2020): a stock's inflation beta (rolling covariance of returns with CPI growth) is priced and the sign of the inflation risk premium flips across regimes.
Jolts Hiring Acceleration Long
Industry hiring acceleration (the 3-month change in YoY job openings growth) leads earnings surprises by about a quarter. When an industry's hiring growth jumps by 5+ percentage points over 3 months, go long the industry leaders for 1-3 months.
Jolts Quits Wage Pressure Short
When the BLS JOLTS data shows industry separations (people quitting + getting laid off) jumping above their 12-month average in labor-intensive sectors like restaurants and retail, wage pressure follows. Short the basket for 1-3 months.
Liquidity Composite Short
When credit spreads and bank funding stress all spike together, high-beta risk-on stocks tend to crack 1-3 weeks later.
Lobbying Issue Sector Beneficiary
When the lobbying spend rises on a topic our company cares about, that topic-driven sector tends to outperform. We go LONG.
Lobbying Peer Graph Momentum
When the TNIC product-market peers of a firm collectively ramp lobbying spend, the policy tailwind tends to lift the whole cluster.
Lobbying Shock
Companies that sharply increased lobbying spend QoQ outperform 6-12 months later — management is signaling private belief in regulatory tailwinds.
Low Volatility Anomaly
Boring low-vol stocks quietly beat high-vol ones risk-adjusted.
Low-Volatility Premium
Counterintuitive: high-idiosyncratic-vol stocks UNDERPERFORM. So short the high-IVOL names, long the steady ones.
macro factor-shock propagation
When a big theme like oil or crypto suddenly moves, ride the stocks that are truly tied to that theme in the direction of their link to it.
Macro Regime
Uses Fed-funds, term spread, and credit spread (FRED data) to flag risk-off vs risk-on regimes and scale exposure accordingly.
Mega-Cap Concentration Overlay
When the Mag-7 (AAPL/MSFT/NVDA/...) outperform together, the rest of the market mechanically lags. Use that as a rotation signal.
Milliman Pfi Macro Signal
Once a month Milliman publishes the funded ratio for the 100 biggest US corporate pensions. When that ratio drops sharply (often because interest rates fell), pension-heavy companies face bigger cash contributions and EPS drag. Short the basket for a few…
Mortgage 30y Housing Short
When 30-year mortgage rates spike, housing demand falls within a few months. Short homebuilders, mortgage REITs, home improvement, and home furnishing stocks during sustained mortgage rate spikes; go long on equivalent compressions.
Multinational Usd Translation
When the dollar weakens, multinationals (Apple, P&G, Coke) get a tailwind. When it strengthens, domestics win.
Ofac Sdn Sanctions Event
OFAC adds new country/entity to sanctions list → US firms with disclosed business there underperform 1-3 weeks.
Oil Energy Sector Rotation
Crude oil leads energy stocks with a 1-2 month lag.
Oil Supply Disruption
Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.
Peer Contract Shock Propagation
When a TNIC competitor wins or loses a large government contract, the focal stock drifts in the same direction as the market recalibrates vendor revenue exposure.
Polymarket Election Volatility X Sector
When prediction-market election odds tilt one way, certain sectors (defense/energy vs healthcare/clean) lead.
Post Earnings Layoff Timing
Miss earnings + announce layoff within two weeks = short for a month, then long for 2-3 months on the cost-cut rebound.
Pre-Fed-Meeting Drift
The 24 hours before each scheduled Fed announcement, the market drifts up ~0.5% — one of the cleanest known anomalies, especially on press-conf meetings.
Regime Overlay
Only go long if the broad market (SPY) is above its 200-day average AND VIX is calm. Otherwise stand aside — don't fight a falling tape.
Repeat Layoff Acceleration Short
Companies that lay off twice within six months are in a cost-cutting spiral; the stock underperforms.
Return-Skew Premium
Stocks with fat downside tails (negative realized skew) trade at a discount and earn a premium; right-skew 'lottery' stocks underperform.
Sanctions Country Basket Short
When OFAC sanctions hit multiple countries that a US-listed company discloses exposure to within a month, we expect the stock to keep drifting down for weeks.
Sanctions Supply Chain Passthrough
When a country a company sources inputs from gets sanctioned, the supply-chain disruption tends to weigh on the downstream company. The academic basis (Carvalho et al 2021) shows this kind of supplier shock lowers firms' sales growth; the specific…
Sector Momentum Orthogonal
If a stock has beaten the market by a lot over the past 6 months, it tends to keep winning; if it's been losing badly, it tends to keep losing — long the leaders, short the laggards.
Sipri Defense Spending
Rising NATO/global defense spend → long US primes.
Speculative-Beta Fade
High-beta stocks usually underperform — but only when there's high disagreement (analyst dispersion). Without disagreement, high beta is fine.
Swap Spread Z
Swap-Treasury spread blowout → short financials 1-3 months.
Tech Layoff Sector Rotation
When 3+ tech firms announce big layoffs in two weeks, growth-tech rotates out and defensives rotate in.
Ted Funding Stress
When the spread between interbank lending rates and Treasury rates widens sharply, it signals funding stress in the banking system. Short high-beta names during such squeezes; go long during equivalent compressions.
Term Structure Curvature
Tent-shaped curvature in the yield curve signals macro regime change — when it spikes, defensives outperform cyclicals.
Terror Consumer Discretionary Short
Major US/EU terror attack → restaurants/cruise stocks (DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL) drop 2-4% over 1-2 weeks.
Terror Defense Premium
Major terror attack → defense-prime stocks (LMT/NOC/GD/RTX) outperform for 1-3 weeks.
Terror Event Airline Drift
Terror attack in US/EU → airline/cruise/hotel stocks drop 3-5% over 1-2 weeks.
Terror Real Estate Msa Short
Major terror events in US cities depress office and hospitality REITs for weeks afterward — short the basket on event clusters.
Tpu Shock Trade Exposed Short
When Trade Policy Uncertainty spikes more than 1.5 standard deviations above its yearly average, multinationals with heavy foreign revenue exposure (Apple, Nike, Boeing, Caterpillar) underperform. Short the basket for 1-3 months.
Tpu Trade Policy Uncertainty
Tariff news spikes TPU; China-exposed semis underperform 1-2 months.
Treasury Auction Tail Regime
When demand at Treasury auctions weakens (low bid-to-cover, foreign buyers retreating), equities sell off over 1-3 weeks. We use the auction signal as a regime gate on each ticker.
Trump Company Mention
When Trump names a company, we trade in the direction his tone suggests for 1-5 days.
Trump Post Volume
When Trump posts a lot in one day, we test whether that volume alone moves any ticker the next day, regardless of what he said.
Trump Tariff Tone
When Trump posts heavily about tariffs or China, we test a one-day-later move on every ticker and let the harness discover which ones actually react.
Usd Factor Betas
Sorting stocks by USD sensitivity creates a tradeable spread under USD strength/weakness regimes.
VIX Spike Recovery
After a panic spike, when VIX starts dropping fast from 30+, stocks usually grind back over the next month.
VIX Term Structure
Front-month VIX cheap vs 3-month (contango) means calm — SPY drifts up. When it inverts (backwardation), panic mode.
VIX Term Structure Carry
Daily roll-yield between front-month and second-month VIX futures. The bigger the contango, the better the short-vol carry trade.
Volatility Of Volatility Signal
When the market's 'fear gauge' (VIX) is itself swinging wildly -- high vol-of-vol -- that uncertainty-about-risk predicts weak forward returns, so the strategy leans short; when VIX is calm and steady, it leans long. It applies the academic vol-of-vol effect…
Volatility Risk Premium
Look at VIX vs longer-dated VIX (VIX3M). When near-term fear is lower than long-term fear (contango), stay long; if it inverts, expect stress.
Vvix Regime Long Equity
When the vol-of-vol indicator (VVIX) spikes, the market is paying up for tail-risk insurance. Stocks usually rebound.
Yen Carry Trade Unwind
Yen jumps + VIX>25 → leveraged carry unwinds → short EM/small-cap 5-10d.
Yield Curve Sector Rotation
Steep curve → favor cyclicals (XLY/XLF/XLI); flattening → favor defensives (XLU/XLP/XLV).
Filings, Insiders & Ownership
116 strategiesWhat the paperwork and the people closest to a company reveal: regulatory filings, insider buying and selling, short interest and who owns the stock.
13F co-holder momentum spillover
When stocks owned by the same big funds move, this one tends to follow.
13F co-holder momentum spillover (2-hop)
When stocks owned by the same big funds (and the funds' other holdings) trend, this one tends to follow.
13F co-holder relative-value reversion
When a stock drifts away from the other companies the same big funds own, it tends to drift back.
13F co-holder reversal spillover
When stocks owned by the same big funds jump or drop sharply, this one tends to move the opposite way next.
13F co-holder reversal spillover (2-hop)
When the broader group of stocks owned by the same big funds overreacts, this one tends to move the opposite way next.
Activist Purpose Aggressive Long
When an activist files a 13D with aggressive language (proxy contest, demand strategic alternatives, push for board seats), the post-filing drift is stronger than for passive 13D filings. Mining the purpose text isolates the value-creating subset.
AI Disclosure Growth
When a company suddenly starts mentioning AI, machine learning, and related terms much more in its annual report than the prior year, that often anticipates revenue and margin gains the market hasn't priced in yet. Long the stock for the next year.
Analyst Dispersion Uncertainty
When analysts strongly disagree about a company's earnings (wide high-low range vs the consensus), the stock tends to underperform.
Analyst Forecast Dispersion Short
When analyst EPS estimates spread WAY wider than usual for a stock (top z-score over the trailing year), it's a stronger signal of unresolved disagreement than just the absolute level. Short the stock for 1-3 months.
Analyst Question Aggression Short
When analysts pile on with aggressive questions on an earnings call (negative tone + scattered concerns), the stock tends to drop over the next 1-2 months.
Analyst Recommendation Revision Drift
When 2 or more analyst upgrades (or downgrades) cluster on the same stock within 2 weeks, the stock drifts in that direction for 2-6 weeks. Go long upgrade clusters, short downgrade clusters.
Analyst Surprise Momentum
When a company's last two quarterly earnings reports BOTH beat (or BOTH missed) by a meaningful amount, the stock tends to keep drifting in that direction for the next 2-3 months. Go long sustained-beat companies, short sustained-miss companies.
Board Member Cross Firm Overlap
When a director sits on multiple corporate boards and trades on one, the others often follow. We trade alongside the cross-firm signal.
borrow-cost spike squeeze fuel
When the fee to borrow a stock for short selling suddenly jumps, it can signal a coming short squeeze, so the strategy buys the stock for a few days.
Business Description Item1 Fluidity
When a company materially changes its Business (Item 1) description vs the prior year, it usually signals competitive flux — and underperformance.
Call Transcript Jaccard Similarity
When management uses the same words on the earnings call as last quarter, that's a good sign. Big language shifts predict trouble.
Cluster Buy Post Drawdown
When 3 or more insiders buy their own stock within 30 days AND the stock is at least 20% below its 90-day high, it is the highest-conviction insider signal (insiders are buying weakness, not chasing momentum). Long for 2-6 months.
complexity-gated filing drift
When a company files a long, hard-to-read annual report, investors are slow to digest it, so the stock keeps drifting in the direction it first moved.
connected-stocks cohort propagation
Stocks held by the same group of funds tend to move together, so when a stock's peer group rallies but it lags behind, the strategy buys it expecting it to catch up.
cross-graph consensus momentum spillover
It looks at how a company's economically related peers (similar products, shared owners, shared board members) have been moving, and trades only when several of those peer networks point the same direction.
cross-graph consensus reversal
Only bets that a stock will snap back when several different groups of related companies all overshoot in the same direction.
Cyber Risk Disclosure Short
When a company adds substantially more cybersecurity, ransomware, or data-breach language in its annual risk-factors section, it often reflects a recent incident or rising exposure. Short the stock for 6 months as the operating cost and revenue impact gets…
Days To Cover Risk Premium Short
Hong-Li-Ni-Scheinkman (2015): days-to-cover (SI / ADV) measures the cost of unwinding a crowded short; high-DTC names earn LOW returns (~1.2%/mo on the spread), orthogonal to raw short-interest level.
Def14a Comp Shift
Big jumps in DEF 14A comp-disclosure text often presage earnings management — short signal.
Earnings Call Word Count Anomaly
When an earnings call runs unusually long OR the Q&A balloons relative to the prepared remarks (z >= 1.5 vs the ticker's own history), management is hedging — short.
ETF Creation Redemption Flow
When ETFs collectively buy more shares of a stock (creation units), the flow pressure tends to drift the price up over weeks; redemption flows do the opposite.
ETF Premium Discount Revert
When an ETF trades at a premium or discount to its underlying basket, the gap closes within 1-3 days as arbitrageurs step in - we fade the deviation.
Exec Comp Pay Ratio Shift
When CEO pay relative to median worker pay jumps sharply, board discipline tends to weaken and the stock tends to underperform over 1-2 years.
Executive Pronoun Shift
When executives stop saying 'we/our' and shift to 'I/my/the company' on earnings calls, the stock tends to drop over the next 1-3 months.
Finra Daily Short Volume Spike
When daily short volume spikes on a stock that is already in a downtrend, that is informed shorts piling on. We short alongside for 1-4 weeks.
Form 144 Cluster With Insider
When 2+ insiders file paperwork to sell within 14 days of each other, the coordinated planned-exit signal tends to mark short-term tops.
Form 144 Filer Cluster
When 3 or more insiders file Form 144 (intent-to-sell notices) within a single month, the stock tends to underperform for 2-6 months. The clustering reflects coordinated information rather than coincident diversification.
Form 144 Vs Form 4 Divergence
When insiders file paperwork saying they will sell but then don't actually sell much, the stock tends to drift up as the perceived overhang lifts.
Form4 Cfo Only
When the CFO personally buys their own company's stock — at least $100k — the stock tends to outperform over the next 2-4 months.
Form4 Cluster Anomaly
When 4+ insiders buy in a single month (a real cluster, not noise), the stock tends to outperform for the next few months.
Form4 Dollar Weighted Cluster
Insider buy clusters are most predictive when the dollar amount is large relative to the firm's own history, not relative to an absolute threshold. Rank each company's 30-day rolling insider dollar-buy against its 1-year history and trade the top-decile…
Forward Looking Statement Count
Companies that ramp up forward-looking language in their annual filing tend to outperform; those that pull back tend to underperform.
Hedge Fund Activist Target Drift
When a hedge-fund activist (Elliott, Pershing, Starboard, etc.) discloses a brand-new stake in a company for the first time, the stock typically drifts upward for 2-3 months as the market prices in expected operational or governance changes.
index co-member momentum spillover
Tests whether a stock follows the other members of its index when they trend.
index co-member momentum spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock follows a wider web of its index members when they trend.
index co-member relative-value reversion
When a stock drifts away from the other members of its index, it tends to drift back.
index co-member reversal spillover
Tests whether a stock snaps back when the other members of its index overreact.
index co-member reversal spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock snaps back when a wider web of its index members overreacts.
Index Inclusion Drift
When a stock first shows up in a broad index ETF, it tends to drift up 3-5% over the next month as funds rebalance.
insider cluster buying
When several company insiders buy their own stock around the same time, the strategy follows them and buys too, betting they know something good is coming.
Insider Cluster Buying
When several insiders buy their own stock within a short window (a 'cluster buy'), it's the most reliable insider signal. Sales are mostly noise.
Insider Post Runup Sell
When multiple insiders sell after the stock has rallied 20% or more from its 3-month low, that cluster of opportunistic sales tends to mark a near-term top. Short for 2-6 months. Routine sales unconditioned on price moves are noise.
Insider Routine Decoder
Many insider trades are clockwork 10b5-1 plans with zero info. Filter them out using trade-date entropy; only opportunistic cluster buys predict +82 bps/month.
Insider-Sale Overhang
When insiders file large planned-sale notices, we short the issuer for the next few weeks.
Institutional Co Ownership Graph
Stocks held by the same big mutual funds co-move beyond fundamentals. We trade the dislocation when one moves and the other has not caught up.
Item 1 02 Termination Material Agreement Short
When a company terminates a material contract (Item 1.02), it signals lost revenue or a broken strategic relationship. Short for 1-3 months.
Item 2 03 Debt Obligation Short
Companies that issue new debt (Item 2.03) tend to underperform for 6-12 months. Managers often issue debt when their equity is overvalued or balance-sheet pressure is rising.
Item 2 05 Restructuring Short
When a company files an 8-K announcing a major restructuring or plant closure, the bad news isn't fully priced on day one — short for two months while the operating weakness leaks out.
Item 3 02 Unregistered Equity Short
When a company files an 8-K disclosing a private equity placement (often at a discount), it signals balance-sheet pressure and dilution. Short for 2-6 months.
Item 4 02 Restatement Short
When a company tells the SEC their previous financial statements can't be trusted, it's the most negative 8-K disclosure they can file — short for six months.
Item 5 01 Change Of Control Drift
An 8-K Item 5.01 (change of control) is a rare corporate event that typically drifts higher for 1-3 months as deal terms get priced in.
Item 5 02 Management Change Drift
When an 8-K announces a director or officer change (Item 5.02), the market typically rerates the firm over the next 1-6 months. Long for 30 to 180 days.
Item 5 07 Shareholder Vote Drift
After an annual or special shareholder meeting (Item 5.07), the firm tends to drift higher when dissent against management was material, as governance pressure leaks into subsequent earnings cycles. Long for 2-6 months.
Item 8 01 Other Events Z
When a company suddenly files many more 'Other Events' 8-Ks than usual, it often means they're staging bad news through catch-all disclosures — short for 1-3 months.
Legal Proceedings Item3 Delta
When litigation disclosures grow Y/Y in the 10-K, the stock tends to underperform for 6 months.
Mdna Tone Delta
Read each year's 10-K through a finance-specific positive/negative word filter. Companies whose tone got more positive year-over-year tend to outperform after the filing date; those whose tone got more negative tend to lag.
multi-hop network momentum spillover
It follows momentum not just from a company's closest peers but from the peers of those peers, since news tends to spread step by step through a web of related firms.
Mutual Fund Fire Sale
When mutual funds get hit with redemptions, they dump stocks regardless of fundamentals. The press lasts 20-40 days (short opportunity), then prices recover over the next 60-180 days (long opportunity). The 13F-aggregate drop in filers and shares is our proxy…
news-gated short-volume short
When short sellers pile in right after a company files news, the strategy bets the stock falls because those shorts are usually reacting to bad information.
non-GAAP recast short
When a company starts excluding more expenses from its custom adjusted earnings, it is often dressing up the numbers before bad news, so the strategy bets against it.
nport conviction-fund forced flow
The strategy watches focused, high-conviction funds for the stocks they are newly buying or adding to, then buys those names too.
Options OI Accumulation
Watches the open-interest (OI) on options as a proxy for big-money accumulation. When call OI quietly builds up far above normal AND people are buying calls way more than puts, that's often institutions taking patient positions through options before pushing…
Q And A Hesitation Short
When executives get noticeably more hedged and non-committal in the Q&A part of an earnings call (mixed, uncertain tone) compared with how that same company usually sounds, we bet the stock drifts down over the next 1 to 3 months and take a short position the…
Risk Factor 10K Item1a Delta
Spike in Item 1A risk-factor changes predicts ~2% underperformance over the next quarter.
Risk Factor Count Z
When a company lists materially more discrete risks in its 10-K vs prior year, the stock tends to underperform over the next 3-6 months.
Routine Vs Opportunistic 10b5 1
Routine insider sales are noise; opportunistic ones (one-off or right after a plan is adopted) tend to mark short-term tops.
same-state HQ momentum spillover
Tests whether a stock follows other companies headquartered in its home state when they trend.
same-state HQ momentum spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock follows a wider web of companies based in its home state when they trend.
same-state HQ relative-value reversion
When a company drifts away from other firms based in its home state, it tends to drift back.
same-state HQ reversal spillover
Tests whether a stock snaps back when companies in its home state overreact.
same-state HQ reversal spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock snaps back when a wider web of home-state companies overreacts.
SEC 8K Disclosure Velocity
When a company starts filing many more 8-Ks than usual, it's often because something bad is being staged — short the stock through the disclosure storm.
SEC Comment Letter Drift
When a company receives an SEC comment letter, it tends to underperform for ~12 months.
Shared-ETF Contagion
When many ETFs increase exposure to the same stock, we treat that as flow pressure and go long.
shared-lobbying-issue momentum spillover
Tests whether a stock follows other companies lobbying on the same issue when they trend.
shared-lobbying-issue momentum spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock follows a wider web of companies lobbying its issue when they trend.
shared-lobbying-issue relative-value reversion
When a company drifts away from other firms lobbying on the same issue, it tends to drift back.
shared-lobbying-issue reversal spillover
Tests whether a stock snaps back when companies lobbying on the same issue overreact.
shared-lobbying-issue reversal spillover (2-hop)
Tests whether a stock snaps back when a wider web of companies lobbying its issue overreacts.
Short Interest Surprise
Hanauer-Lesnevski-Smajlbegovic (2023): investors anchor on the prior short-interest print and underreact to the UNEXPECTED component.
Short Pressure Composite
A composite index of borrow cost, short volume, and options skew cleanly separates squeeze candidates from persistent short-overhang shorts.
Short Pressure Overhang Short
When informed short sellers maintain heavy positioning for weeks without triggering a squeeze, the persistent overhang is a reliable bearish signal.
Short Pressure Squeeze Long
Stocks with high short interest and rapidly rising borrow costs are primed for short squeezes -- a tactical long opportunity.
Supplier Customer Named 10K Graph
Extracts named customer/supplier references from the firm's own 10-K filing - when one of those named partners has bad news, the firm follows.
Thirteen F Breadth Overpriced Short
When the number of institutional investors holding a stock jumps sharply in a single quarter, it means the pool of marginal optimists has tapped out. The stock is overpriced — short it for the next 2-3 months.
Thirteen F Quarterly Accumulation
When both 'how many funds bought the stock' AND 'how much they bought' jump together to top-20% of the stock's history in the same quarter, institutions are accumulating aggressively. Go long for 2-9 months.
Thirteen F Superinvestor Coattail
When a small set of top-tier hedge fund managers (Buffett, Ackman, etc.) reveal a brand-new position on their quarterly 13F filing, the stock tends to drift up over the next 2-6 months as other investors copy the trade.
TNIC peer relative-value reversion
When a company drifts away from its closest product-market rivals, it tends to drift back.
TNIC product-market peer momentum spillover
When a company's closest product-market rivals trend, this one tends to follow.
TNIC product-market peer reversal spillover
When a company's product-market rivals jump or drop sharply, this one tends to move the opposite way next.
TNIC product-market peer reversal spillover (2-hop)
When a company's product-market rivals (and their rivals) overreact, this one tends to move the opposite way next.
Tone Delta Industry Rank
Rank each company's earnings-call tone change against sector peers — buy the most-improved, short the most-deteriorated.
Transcript AI Exposure
Bigram score against an AI/LLM lexicon on transcripts. High-AI-exposure firms outperformed sharply after ChatGPT launched.
Transcript Analyst Frustration
Measures the tone of the ANALYSTS asking questions, not management's answers. When their questions sound frustrated or skeptical, the stock tends to drift down over the following weeks.
Transcript Analyst Question Uniqueness
Allee, Do & Do (2024): textual uniqueness of analyst Q&A questions (dissimilarity vs other analysts on the same call, the same analyst's prior calls, and the prepared remarks) reflects genuine private information-gathering, and the answers
Transcript Cfo Qa Defensiveness
Specifically measures the CFO's tone swings during the analyst Q&A portion. When the CFO oscillates between positive boilerplate and defensive clarifications, expect a forward miss.
Transcript Climate Risk
Same idea but for climate-related language (IPCC/ESG lexicon). The 'climate opportunity' decile outperformed in post-2015 sample.
Transcript Exec Tone Divergence
Compares CEO tone vs CFO tone on the same earnings call. If the CEO sounds optimistic but the CFO sounds cautious, they're not on the same page — historically bearish.
Transcript Exec Uncertainty
Filters out analyst speech and just measures how often the CEO/CFO use uncertainty words ('may', 'could'). High uncertainty = bearish.
Transcript Finbert Qa Dispersion
Listens to how steady management's tone is during analyst Q&A. If answers swing between confident and defensive, it usually signals trouble ahead.
Transcript Guidance Shift
Counts direction-specific words ('expect', 'headwind', etc.) on the call and z-scores them — guidance shifts predict price drift.
Transcript Obfuscation Bloomfield
When managers' call language gets harder to read (rising Fog index) Q/Q, they're hiding bad news. Predicts 12-month underperformance.
Transcript Peer Relative Tone
Strips out industry-wide sentiment and measures only how this firm's call tone differs from peers — 2× the drift of raw tone.
Transcript Political Risk Hhvt
Counts bigrams from a curated politics lexicon in transcripts. Firms whose calls spike in political-risk language hedge more and underperform.
Transcript Qa Combativeness
Analysts asking longer questions paired with shorter manager answers signals skepticism — predicts near-term underperformance.
Transcript Qa Evasion
Measures semantic distance between an analyst's question and management's answer. Evasive answers (high distance) predict 60-day underperformance.
Transcript Revision Disagreement Magnitude
The larger the gap between management optimism on a call and subsequent analyst estimate cuts, the stronger the drift toward analyst reality.
Transcript Revision Disagreement Pt Dispersion
When analyst price targets are widely spread after an earnings call and management tone was bullish, the stock tends to underperform as the optimistic outliers revise down.
Transcript Revision Disagreement Tone Gap
When the prepared remarks on an earnings call are much more upbeat than the Q&A section, the stock tends to drift down as the optimism fades.
Transcript Tone Drift
Measures whether management's language on the earnings call got more positive or negative quarter-over-quarter. Tone drift predicts price drift.
Transcript Uncertainty Score
When management uses lots of hedging words ('may', 'could', 'approximately') on the earnings call, the stock tends to underperform over the next 1-3 months.
Real-World & Alternative Data
89 strategiesSignals from outside the market: weather, shipping, crops, consumer demand, web attention and other physical-world measurements.
Analyst Forecast Dispersion
When analysts disagree widely on a stock's earnings, it's overpriced (pessimists can't short-sell in size). Short high-dispersion, long low-dispersion.
Analyst Revision Breadth
Counts how many analysts revised in the same direction (not the size of revisions). Breadth predicts post-revision drift better than magnitude.
Analyst Revision Jump
A big overnight gap NOT preceded by an analyst revision is mispriced — the revision arrives ~5 days later and the price drifts further in that direction.
Attention Spike
When Google searches for a ticker spike abnormally, retail piles in and overpays. Short-term the price runs, then mean-reverts.
Baltic Dry Ais Proxy
NOAA AIS shows dry-bulk shipping accelerate → shippers + miners rally 1-2 months.
Bitcoin Treasury Proxies
MSTR/miners track BTC momentum with leverage.
Box Office Genre X Distributor
When a distributor's slate is heavily one-genre AND that genre is in a market-wide uptrend, the distributor outperforms.
Box Office Holdover Premium
Movies that hold over from week 1 to week 2 (60%+ retention vs typical 40%) signal positive word-of-mouth — long the distributor.
Btc Tech Correlation Regime
Bitcoin miners and Coinbase track BTC with a 1-2 day lag.
calendar-month seasonality
Some stocks reliably do better in certain months of the year, and this strategy leans into those repeating monthly patterns.
Census Ft900 Import Nowcast
When U.S. monthly imports are surging year-over-year, import-reliant retailers tend to restock and may see firmer demand a quarter later, so the strategy leans long on the import surge and short on the pullback. This is an internal macro heuristic, not a…
Census Ft900 Tariff Passthrough
U.S. imports surge MoM → retailer margin pressure in 1-2 months → SHORT TGT/BBY/LULU/AAPL/WMT.
Cit Extreme Positioning Reversion
When commodity-index traders pile in extremely on one side, the equity basket of that commodity tends to mean-revert over 10-20 days.
Cme Basis Curve Steepening
When the crude/copper curve flips into steeper backwardation, cyclical industrials (CAT/DE/FCX) outperform for several weeks.
Copper Steel Ratio
Copper outpacing steel = capex cycle accelerating → long industrials.
Corporate Jet Destinations
Corporate jet flies to unusual city → possible M&A coming.
Crop Condition X Weather Composite
When crop conditions deteriorate AND the climate signal is unusually strong, we buy ag-input/processor names - the joint signal is sharper than either alone.
Crop State Dispersion Short
When top-producer states disagree about crop conditions, supply uncertainty rises and ag-equipment makers tend to underperform.
Crop-Condition Signal
When USDA crop conditions deteriorate, we buy agribusiness and ag-equipment names that can benefit from supply tightness.
Crude Brent Spread
WTI tightening to Brent → US refiner margin tailwind.
Crypto Proxy Basket Long
Long crypto-proxies only when DeFi adoption is rising AND capital is broadly distributed (not concentrating into a single protocol).
Customer Momentum
When a firm's major customer has a return shock, the supplier under-reacts — its stock drifts in the same direction the following month.
Defi Tvl Correlation
Dollars staked in DeFi surge → Coinbase/Robinhood/BlackRock rally within 2 weeks.
Defi Tvl Protocol Concentration
When DeFi capital concentrates into a few protocols (rising HHI), the system is fragile and crypto-stocks underperform.
Degree Days Utility Revenue Lead
When heating/cooling demand spikes far above the 5-year norm, regulated utilities tend to beat revenue expectations 30 days out.
downtrend-gated analyst dispersion short
When analysts strongly disagree about a company's earnings and the stock is already in a downtrend, the strategy bets the price falls further.
Dr Copper Industrial Leader
Copper leads industrial stocks by 4-8 weeks.
Drought Pdsi Agribusiness
Long-running farm-belt drought → long water utilities + seed; short food processors.
Drought Severity Ag Input Short
When the US Drought Monitor shows severe drought (D2+D3+D4) expanding across the corn/wheat belt to the worst 10% of the past 3 years, food companies that buy a lot of corn and wheat (General Mills, Kellogg, Campbell, Kraft Heinz) face cost pressure. Short…
Earthquake Insurance Window Short
When a major earthquake (magnitude 6 or higher) hits California, Japan, or the Pacific Rim, reinsurers take an immediate loss-recognition hit — short them for 1-2 weeks. Construction firms gain on rebuild demand — go long for 3 months.
Eia Crude Storage Surprise
EIA crude-storage surprise (vs consensus) → 1-5d energy move.
Eia Crude Storage Surprise V2
A bigger-than-seasonal crude draw lifts the broad E&P basket for the next few trading days.
Eia Degree Days Weather Anomaly
Cold snap means natgas E&Ps win; heat wave means utilities win. The z-score vs 10y baseline tells you when the move is real.
Eia Natgas Storage Surprise
Every Thursday EIA publishes US natgas storage. If the build is smaller than expected, natgas E&Ps (EQT, RRC, CHK) jump for 1-5 days.
Eia Refinery Utilization Drift
When US refineries are running hot, refiners (VLO/MPC/PSX) outperform for a couple of weeks.
El Nino Softs Long
When NOAA's El Niño index (ONI) hits strong territory (>= +1.5), coffee, sugar and soy supplies tighten globally. Companies heavily exposed to those inputs (Starbucks, ADM, Bunge) tend to rise over the following 3-6 months.
Enso Oni
Strong El Niño/La Niña shocks soft commodities → ag stocks rally 3-6 months.
Enso Pc Insurance Short
When El Niño or La Niña intensify (|ONI| >= 1.5), US severe weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons) tends to be more active. Property & casualty insurers (AIG, Travelers, Allstate, Progressive) face higher catastrophe losses. Short the basket for 3-6 months.
Extreme Temp Retail Short
Extreme heat or cold during peak retail weeks (back-to-school, Black Friday) hurts specialty apparel — short for 2-6 weeks.
Gasoline Distillate Crack Spread
When gasoline ETF rallies vs crude ETF (a wide crack spread), refiners benefit; when it compresses, they suffer.
Gold Silver Ratio
Gold > 80x silver = risk-off → short small-cap.
Google Svi Attention Spike
When Google searches for a stock spike, the stock pops then mean-reverts. Long the spike, short the reversal.
Google Trends Finbert Composite
When Google Trends search interest spikes AND earnings-call sentiment confirms the direction, you get a ~1-3% short-term move.
Hdd Surprise Natgas
NWS forecasts cold spike → long nat-gas E&P for 1-2 weeks.
healthy volume pattern
When a stock suddenly trades much more heavily than usual, more investors notice it and the price tends to rise over the next few weeks.
Hq Geographic Cluster Spillover
Stocks based in the same state co-move because local investors hold them all. When the state basket moves and our stock has not caught up, we position alongside.
Hurricane Landfall Coastal Short
Active hurricane → coastal stocks drop, reinsurers rally.
Hurricane Preseason Reinsurer
NOAA's May forecast says >60% chance of above-normal hurricane season → buy reinsurer stocks through November.
Hurricane Track Uncertainty Insurance Short
When NOAA publishes a hurricane outlook with wide track uncertainty, P&C insurers underperform until the cone resolves.
Industry Lead Lag
If the sector ETF outperformed SPY recently but the stock hasn't caught up, info diffuses slowly — bet the laggard catches up.
Joint Attention Spillover Reversal
Decompose a focal ticker's Wikipedia pageview attention spike into shared vs idiosyncratic components by co-movement with its TNIC-peer / sector cohort's pageview spikes on the same days.
Lme Warehouse Drawdown Momentum
When physical buyers drain LME copper/aluminum/nickel warehouses faster than usual, miner stocks (FCX, AA, VALE) rally for the next 1-4 weeks.
NFT Volume Speculative Sentiment
NFT trading surge → speculative-tech and crypto-broker stocks rally within 1-2 weeks.
NFT-Volume Risk Appetite
When NFT trading volume across marketplaces (OpenSea, Blur, etc.) surges 1 standard deviation above its 90-day trend, crypto-equity names like Coinbase and the miners tend to outperform over the next 1-2 weeks. We use NFT volume as the canary for retail…
Nifc Wildfire Utility Short
Big CA wildfire in PG&E / Edison / Sempra territory → that utility's stock drops for 2-4 weeks.
Noaa Landfall Insurance Short
Hurricane approaches FL/TX/LA coast → property insurer stocks (ALL/TRV/AIG/PGR) drop for 1-3 weeks.
Noaa Storm Refiner Disruption
Storm enters Gulf of Mexico → refiner and chemical stocks (VLO/MPC/PSX/LYB/DOW) drop 1-3% for a week.
Patent Class Drift
When a company's patent portfolio shifts into new technology classes (e.g. legacy hardware -> AI), it's signaling a real pivot. The stock outperforms over the next 1-2 years.
Patent Continuation Burst Long
When a company files five or more patent continuations in 90 days from the same assignee, it's reinforcing protection around a successful product line. We buy the stock and hold for two to three months until the market prices in the innovation pipeline.
Patent Innovation Premium
Markets under-react when companies are granted high-value patents (measured by 3-day stock reaction at grant). Firms with valuable recent patents outperform by 3-5%/yr.
Polar Vortex Ssw Macro
Sudden Stratospheric Warming → polar vortex breaks → cold blast in 10-30 days → long nat-gas, short airlines.
Polymarket Resolution Outlier Long
When a Polymarket resolves sharply opposite to its long-run consensus, the linked stock tends to drift in the direction of the surprise for 1-3 weeks.
Port Container La Signal Mvp
Internal heuristic: when LA port inbound-container throughput slows vs its ~1yr trend, big importers tend to underperform; when it accelerates, rails/logistics tend to rally. Not validated against an academic paper.
Port Inbound Retail Inventory Build
Port LA inbound TEU surges → TGT/BBY/WMT inventory glut → SHORT for 1-2 months.
Port Ship Count Throughput
We count ships at major container ports from free satellite imagery; spikes signal a global trade-throughput pulse that propagates to shipping and consumer names.
Pos Same Store Nowcast
When SafeGraph's 13-week smoothed foot-traffic YoY for a retailer breaks above +5% or below -5%, the next earnings report is likely to surprise in that direction. Go long winners, short laggards, hold through earnings.
price-momentum and call-tone fusion
It buys (or sells) only when a stock's price trend and the tone of its earnings calls agree, treating that double confirmation as a stronger signal than either one alone.
Refinery Utilization Z
When refinery utilization runs unusually low for the time of year, refiners tend to drift down on margin compression - we sell short for 5-10 days.
Round Number Anchoring
Stocks bounce off round-dollar prices — $50, $100, etc. — because traders cluster orders there. Fade approaches; ride bounces.
Search Volume Lead Indicator
When retail investors suddenly start searching for a small-cap stock, it usually pops over the next 1-2 weeks from order-flow alone.
Smart Money Best Ideas
Most fund managers add little value across their full book — but their TOP overweight (highest-conviction name) outperforms by 4-9%/yr. Clone those.
Snowfall Retail Short
Heavy snowstorm in NYC/Boston/Chicago → short Macy's/Nordstrom/Gap/TJX for 1-2 weeks.
Stablecoin Supply X Btc Long
When dollars locked in DeFi surge over 60 days, MicroStrategy/Coinbase/miners catch a bid within two weeks.
Steam Genre Rotation
When the Steam top-100 leans more heavily into a publisher's genre strength (think more action games for TTWO, more sports games for EA), that publisher's stock catches a bid. We classify games by keyword heuristics and track each genre's share of total…
Steam Player Decay 30d
If a new game loses more than half its players in the first 30 days, the publisher's upcoming earnings will likely miss. We track day-1 vs day-30 concurrent-player counts and short the publisher when a title fails to hold its launch audience.
Steam Publisher Concurrency Momentum
When players flock to a publisher's live-service games (think GTA Online or Apex Legends), DLC and microtransaction revenue follows. We scrape SteamCharts daily, sum concurrent players across each publisher's portfolio, and rank publishers cross-sectionally…
Steam Review Velocity Long
When the rate of Steam concurrency growth accelerates (proxy for review velocity), the publisher's stock outperforms over 2-4 weeks.
Stocktwits Bull Bear Drift
When StockTwits chatter swings bullish faster than usual, the stock tends to drift up briefly.
Stocktwits Message Velocity
When stock message-board chatter spikes on a name already declining, we short it for the next 1-2 weeks because the noise tends to fade.
Viirs Hotspot Density Utility Short
When NASA's VIIRS satellites detect a sustained surge of fire hotspots in California, PG&E and other CA utilities face heightened liability risk — short them. The flip side: reinsurers benefit from higher premium pricing post-event — go long.
Wasde Yield Surprise
USDA WASDE yield surprises → ADM/BG hurt by upside, DE/AGCO hurt by downside.
Weather X Eia X Utilities
When cold weather and tight natural-gas storage hit simultaneously, gas producers (EQT/RRC) outperform and utilities (D/SO/EXC) underperform for one to two weeks. We trade both sides of that pair when the signal fires.
Wiki Attention Earnings Interaction
When Wikipedia pageviews on a stock surge AND there was a recent positive earnings surprise in the past 2 weeks, the typical post-earnings drift gets amplified — go long for 1-3 months.
Wikipedia Attention Reversal
When Wikipedia pageviews for a stock surge in the top 10% of normal weekly moves, retail attention has driven the price up too far. Short the stock for 1-2 weeks as the attention premium fades.
Wikipedia Attention Spike
Abnormal Wikipedia pageviews for a ticker predict a 2-week rally then a year-out reversal. Cleaner than Google Trends per Pyun 2024.
Wildfire Acreage Utility Short
Big CA wildfire → PG&E and other CA utilities drop for 1-3 weeks.
Wildfire Smoke Airline Short
When major wildfires (including in Canada) blanket US airline hubs in smoke and degrade air quality, airlines face delays, diversions, and lost revenue. Short the US airline basket for 1-4 weeks after the worst smoke events.
Wsb Acceleration
When WSB chatter accelerates from quiet to noisy, the stock drifts up for a week. When chatter fades, it mean-reverts.
Wsb Attention Alpha
When WallStreetBets suddenly piles into a name AND the chart is already trending up, that's a 2-5 day continuation. When they pile in and the chart isn't cooperating, ride the fade once the noise dies down a week later.
Price & Market Behavior
124 strategiesRead straight from price, volume and volatility, including how a stock trades against the market and its peers.
52-Week-High Momentum
Stocks within 5% of their 52-week high tend to keep going (anchoring effect). Conversely, stocks at very deep drawdowns (-40%+) often bounce.
Accruals Quality
Earnings backed by cash flow are repeatable; earnings backed by accruals (paper changes in receivables/inventory) fade. Short high-accrual names.
afternoon drift
When a stock pushes hard in the afternoon (when the big institutions trade), it tends to keep moving the same way the next day.
Altman Z Score
A 5-ratio score that flags bankruptcy risk. High score = safe (long); low score = distressed (short). The market-cap version of the original 1968 formula.
Amihud Illiquidity
Measures how much the price moves per dollar traded. Stocks costly to exit must pay investors more — long the illiquid names for the premium.
Asset Growth Anomaly
Companies that grow their balance sheet aggressively (lots of new assets, M&A, capex spikes) tend to under-deliver the next 1-3 years — the market trusted the empire-building story too much. Bet on the boring low-growth names instead.
Auditor Change Drift Short
Companies that change auditors underperform by ~9% over the next year. Short the day after the 8-K Item 4.01 lands.
Beneish M Score Short
Eight accounting red flags (sales receivables stretching faster than sales, margin compression, asset-quality drift, leverage jumps, accruals piling up) are combined into a single score. When the score crosses the manipulator threshold and the price chart…
Betting Against Beta
Low-beta stocks (calmer than the market) tend to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than high-beta ones; this family overweights when beta drops.
Betting Against Correlation
Asness, Frazzini, Gormsen & Pedersen (2020): the low-risk effect is driven by the correlation leg of beta; a BAC portfolio (long low market-correlation, short high-correlation, volatility-matched) earns a premium distinct from idio-vol/lott
Borrow FTD Squeeze
When THREE things fire together — expensive borrow, SEC threshold list, heavy FINRA short-volume — the stock sharply mean-reverts UP over 5 days.
Borrow Rate Level Short
When the cost to short a stock annualizes above 10% (hard-to-borrow), the stock tends to underperform by roughly 3-4% per month. Short these expensive-to-borrow names for the next 4-12 weeks.
Borrow Rate Spike
When the cost to borrow a stock spikes, shorts are paying premium to bet against it — usually a bearish signal, except at extremes where they get squeezed.
Borrow Rate Spike Short
When the cost to short a stock jumps sharply over a month (top 10% of normal moves), informed shorts are paying a premium to get in. Short the stock for 4-8 weeks.
Breakout Proximity
Flags stocks trading very close to their 52-week high — the closer to the high, the more likely they keep grinding higher.
Breakout Volume
A 20-day high breakout is taken only when volume is unusually large and true-range is expanding — confirming it's a real move, not a head-fake.
Buyback Drift
Companies that announce (or quietly start) share buybacks beat the market by 3-4% over the next year, strongest in beaten-down value names.
Capex Spike Negative
Top decile of capex-to-sales underperforms by 3-4%/yr — over-investment penalty.
cash conversion cycle spread
Companies that turn inventory and bills into cash quickly tend to be quietly well-run, and the market often underrates them.
Cash Profitability
Cash operating profit (backs out accrual fudges) over book equity is a sharper quality predictor than gross profit. Long the cash-rich.
cash-flow duration rate shock
Growth stocks whose payoff is far in the future act like long-term bonds, so they get hurt most when interest rates climb, and this strategy bets against them when rates rise.
close strength drift
A stock that finishes the day strong (rising into the bell and above its average price) tends to keep rising the next day.
closing-auction imbalance drift
A big rush of buying or selling right into the closing bell tends to keep pushing the price the same way the next day.
Cointegrated Pairs
Same idea as pairs reversion, but first checks the stock and its sector ETF actually share a long-run equilibrium (cointegration).
composite options pressure
Roll IV flow, term structure, and skew into a single bullish/bearish pressure gauge and trade it only when the stock's price is moving the same way.
Corwin Schultz Spread
A more precise daily-bar bid-ask spread estimator than Roll's, using high-low ranges. We go long only, when a stock's estimated spread widens sharply versus its own one-year history while it is in an uptrend; thresholds vary. No short side.
Coskewness Premium
Stocks that crash hardest when the market crashes (negative coskewness) are compensated with a higher risk premium. Conversely, stocks that act like insurance during market crashes underperform on average. Rank stocks by their 1-year coskewness with SPY.
Cross Sectional Momentum
Compare the stock to its sector peers on 12-month return (excluding last month). If it's in the top third of peers, go long.
cross-sectional options stress contrarian
Compare a stock's option fear gauge to every other optionable stock today, and buy the most fearful after a dip or fade the most complacent after a rally.
cross-sectional small-cap momentum
Buy the stocks that have been the strongest performers over the past year and (optionally) short the weakest, picked relative to all other stocks.
cross-sectional small-cap multifactor blend
Favor stocks that are both strong performers and low-volatility, combining two complementary ways of picking winners to smooth out the ride.
cross-sectional small-cap short-term reversal
Buy stocks that just underperformed everything else, betting they snap back over the next few days to weeks.
Crowded Long Unwind
When 13F filer concentration is at multi-year highs AND price is rolling over with vol expansion, expect forced-deleveraging cascade. Mirror of squeeze.
Crowded-Trade Reversal
Stocks that mutual funds are forced to buy/sell because of THEIR OWN clients (not fundamentals) revert over 1-3 months. Fade crowded names.
Days To Cover Squeeze Long
When an unusually large share of a stock's recent trading volume is short (high for that stock versus its own past year) and the price is starting to reverse upward, you have a squeeze setup. Go long for 1-4 weeks.
dealer-gamma adaptive regime overlay
When options dealers are positioned to calm the stock down, bet recent moves reverse; when they are positioned to amplify, bet recent moves keep going.
Enterprise Yield
EV-based yield (EBITDA/EV and FCF/EV) catches cheapness that book/price misses on debt-heavy firms. We average those two and prefer the cheapest names trending up.
ETF Ownership Crowding
Stocks with disproportionately high ETF ownership experience predictable price dislocations when ETFs rebalance, creating short-term mean-reversion opportunities.
expected investment growth (q5)
Buy companies whose capital spending looks set to accelerate next year and avoid those where it is set to shrink.
factor-neutral idiosyncratic residual
Filter out the parts of a stock's move driven by the market and big macro themes, then trade only on what is left that is unique to that company.
Fails-to-Deliver Pressure
If a stock has been on the SEC's 'failed-to-deliver' threshold list for many days, brokers are forced to close shorts — sets up a squeeze.
Fails-to-Deliver Pressure
When settlement fails spike far above normal, we treat it as a possible squeeze-pressure signal and go long briefly.
Fifty Two Week Low Drift
Stocks within 10% of 52w low keep drifting down.
Flow Confirmed
A trend signal that fires only when shorting flow is light AND dark-pool (institutional) volume is rising — confirming smart money is accumulating.
Frog In Pan Momentum
A series of small same-signed daily moves (continuous info) creates stronger momentum drift than the same total return delivered as a few big jumps.
FTD Anomaly Short
When the rolling-month average of failures-to-deliver on a stock hits the top 10% of its own history, informed shorts are aggressively in. Short the stock for the next 4 weeks.
FTD Concentrated Squeeze Long
When a stock is on the SEC's failure-to-deliver list and the daily fail value spikes, the forced-buy-in mechanism often triggers a short squeeze.
FTD Persistence Signal
When a stock fails to deliver shares for several days in a row, persistent short pressure tends to keep the price drifting down for another 1-3 weeks.
FTD With Borrow Rate Spike
When the cost to borrow a stock spikes AND the stock is failing to deliver shares at the same time, both independent stress signals point to continued downside.
Fundamental Inflection Dupont
Companies where ROE improvement is driven by margin gains (not leverage) outperform peers over the next year.
Fundamental Inflection Fscore Delta
A rising Piotroski F-Score from a weak starting level signals fundamental recovery before the sell-side catches on.
Fundamental Inflection Gp Accruals
Companies where gross profit is rising while accruals are falling signal improving earnings quality that the market is slow to price.
Fundamental Inflection Stress
Financially stressed firms with rising leverage and shrinking cash flow systematically underperform -- the short leg of the Piotroski F-Score screen.
Gap Play
Two trades: ride a gap UP through a consolidation (continuation), or buy the bounce after a heavy gap DOWN into an oversold tape.
Gross Profitability
Companies with high gross profit / total assets keep beating peers — it's the cleanest measure of 'is this business actually good'.
Hou Xue Zhang Q Factor
Rank companies on two things: how little they spend on capex relative to assets (efficient investment) and how high their return on equity is. Top 25% combos go long, bottom 25% go short. Hold 3-12 months.
Idiosyncratic Momentum
Strip out market and sector moves, then bet on the residual trend — what the stock did beyond what its peers did.
implied volatility innovation drift
When traders rush to buy bullish call options on a stock, it often rises afterward; when they rush to buy protective puts, it often falls.
implied volatility rank mean reversion
When fear in the options market is at a one-year high the stock tends to bounce back, and when it is unusually calm the stock tends to slip.
implied volatility term structure slope
When longer-dated options are calmer than near-dated ones the market is relaxed and the stock can trend up, but when near-dated options are jumpier it signals near-term stress.
intraday volatility-spike reversal
On days when a stock's price swings unusually hard intraday, the move tends to be an overreaction that partly reverses the next day.
iv-flow confirmed momentum
Ride a stock's trend only when option buyers are leaning the same way: calls getting pricier into an uptrend, puts getting pricier into a downtrend.
Liquidity Provision Premium
Stocks falling sharply bounce — bounce is bigger when VIX is high.
Lottery-Stock Avoidance
If a stock had a few wild up-days last month, retail piles in and overpays for it — so it tends to underperform next. We fade those lottery names.
low-turnover factor-neutral residual momentum
The same trade-on-the-stock's-unique-move idea, but holding positions for months so trading costs don't eat the profit.
Market Closure Reversal
After a long weekend or market holiday, sharp moves often snap back harder than usual. This family tests that closure-conditioned reversal.
Multi Horizon Trend
Looks at the stock's trend over several lookbacks (weeks, months, quarters). When most lookbacks agree the trend is up, go long; when most disagree, stand aside.
Noa Anomaly
When a company's operating assets balloon faster than its lagged total assets, that bloat predicts underperformance. Inverse of the asset-quality story — we short the bloated names.
Ohlson O Score
A bankruptcy logit score that's orthogonal to Altman's Z. We use both — they catch different distress flavors.
opening range breakout
When a stock swings widely right at the open and then finishes the day up (or down), it tends to keep going that way the next day.
Option Call Put OI Imbalance
Open interest reflects positioning, not flow. When call-OI vs put-OI gets very crowded, the positioning eventually unwinds against itself.
Option Call Put Volume Imbalance
When unusual call buying surges (vs trailing baseline), informed traders are loading up via options. Stock tends to follow up over the next 1-3 weeks.
Option IV Skew Drift
When put options become unusually expensive vs in-the-money puts, the market is bracing for a drop. Stock usually recovers as the panic fades.
Option To Stock Volume Ratio
Johnson & So (2012): the ratio of total option volume to equity share volume (O/S) negatively predicts the underlying's 1-week return (~0.34%/wk on the spread) because short-sale-constrained negative-information traders migrate to options. Backtest uses…
option-implied kurtosis butterfly
When options imply the stock could make a big jump in either direction (fat tails), it tends to earn higher returns than when the option market expects a tame, narrow range.
option-implied variance asymmetry
When the options market is pricing in more room for the stock to rise than to crash, the stock tends to go up afterward.
options dealer gamma exposure regime
When options dealers are positioned to dampen moves the stock tends to drift back to where it was, and when they amplify moves the stock tends to keep trending.
Options Skew
Reads the option-chain 'smile' — when puts are unusually expensive vs calls, traders fear downside. v2 generator now uses the gauss314 HuggingFace bulk dataset, but coverage stops at 2023-07-28. Waiting on the IBKR paper-account forward fetcher to top-up…
overnight gap fade
When a stock opens with a big jump or drop versus the previous close, that move usually gets partly given back, so you bet on the reversal.
Overnight Intraday Decomp
Stocks that quietly gain overnight, day after day, tend to keep doing it — that's where the after-hours news and informed off-exchange order flow lives. Stocks that lose overnight consistently keep losing.
Payment Cycle Reversal
Graziani (2024): recurring payment-cycle flows (401k contributions, fund distributions/reinvestments, index cash deployment) cluster around month-end/turn-of-month, creating non-fundamental price pressure that reverses once inelastic flow a
peer intraday lead-lag
If a stock's closest peers all show heavy one-sided trading near the close, the lagging stock tends to follow them the next day.
Pension Funding Status Drift
Underfunded pension plans drag earnings — underperform for ~1 year.
Piotroski F Score
Score each company on 9 boring-but-important accounting checks (positive profit, improving margin, no new shares issued, less debt, etc.). Stocks that pass 7-9 of them are quality compounders; stocks that pass 0-2 are distressed. Long the strong, short the…
profitability trend
Buy companies whose profitability has been steadily climbing quarter after quarter, and short those where it is steadily falling.
Quality Minus Junk
High-quality stocks (good margins, high ROE) that are ALSO trending up tend to beat low-quality losers. Goes long only when both check out.
Quality Minus Junk
Score a company on four 'quality' dimensions — profitability, growth, low debt, dividend payout. The top 25% combo go long, the bottom 25% go short. Hold 3-12 months.
R&D-Intensity Value
Standard value factors mistake R&D-heavy tech firms as 'growth' because R&D is expensed not capitalized. Adding R&D back uncovers hidden value.
Range Regime Meanrev
Buys oversold dips and sells overbought pops, but only when the stock is in a sideways / range-bound phase (low ADX).
Realized Semivariance Asymmetry
Not all volatility is the same. This family separates upside and downside volatility, then tests whether downside-heavy stocks earn a premium.
Reg Sho Threshold Entry Short
When a stock first lands on the SEC's Reg SHO Threshold List after being off it for at least a week, short it for the next 1-2 weeks before the forced-buy-in mechanism kicks in.
Relative-Value Pairs
When the stock has wandered too far above or below its sector ETF (>2 standard deviations), bet it snaps back.
Residual Momentum
Remove market beta; leftover idiosyncratic momentum is cleaner.
risk-neutral skew term structure spread
When near-term options suddenly price in much more crash risk than longer-dated ones, the stock tends to fall as the market catches up.
risk-neutral skewness short
Stocks whose options make them look like lottery tickets with big upside tend to disappoint, so this strategy bets against them.
Roll Implicit Spread
Effective bid-ask spread inferred from how negatively a stock's daily returns auto-correlate. Spread widening predicts informed-trading pressure and forward underperformance.
Sector Momentum
Go long the stock when its sector ETF is itself in a strong uptrend; lets the sector tide do the work.
Sector Rs Leader Follower
Stocks in sectors with the strongest relative strength versus the S&P 500 tend to outperform those in the weakest sectors over the next 1-3 months.
Sector Spy Conditional
Whether the market overall is trending up or down conditions how strongly sector leadership translates into individual stock performance.
Shareholder Yield
Stocks with high combined dividend+buyback yield outperform — beats either signal alone.
Short Interest Change
Watches FINRA's daily short-sale volume z-score. Aggressive new shorting in a falling tape = continuation; extreme highs that revert = squeeze fade.
Short Interest Ratio Drift
Stocks where short interest is persistently in the top 20% of their own history underperform by about 7% per year. Short these high-SI names for 1-6 months.
Short Term Reversal
Stocks that fell sharply over the last few days tend to bounce; stocks that ripped tend to fade. A 1-week mean-reversion bet.
Single Name Variance Risk Premium
When option-implied volatility is much higher than recently realized, options are expensive. Stock tends to drift up as the fear premium burns off.
Single Name Volatility Of Volatility Short
Baltussen, van Bekkum & van der Grient (2018): single-stock uncertainty-about-risk (vol-of-vol = rolling stdev of a name's ATM IV) forecasts LOW returns (~10%/yr spread), distinct from idio-vol and the lottery/MAX effect, driven by investor Backtest uses…
skew-panic reversal
When put options spike in price and fear is high right after a drop, buy the bounce; when calls are euphoric after a run-up, fade it.
term-slope trend confirmation
Follow a stock's trend only when the shape of its implied-volatility curve agrees the move should keep going.
Time-Series Momentum
If a stock has gone up over the last year, bet it keeps going up; if down, bet it keeps going down. Scales the bet smaller when the stock is jumpy.
TNIC Momentum Spillover
The 1-month lagged return of a stock's text-similarity peer basket (TNIC, crosses sectors) predicts the focal stock's next-month return.
TNIC Peer Guidance Spillover
When TNIC peers raise/lower forward guidance, the focal firm tends to follow 1-2 quarters later.
TNIC Peer Margin Shock Spillover
When TNIC product-market peers see big margin moves, focal usually follows within 1-2 quarters.
Transcript Tone X Short Interest
Negative tone shift on the call PLUS rising short-volume in the following days = continued downside over 20 days. Tone confirmed by flow.
Value Composite
Cheap is cheap if it shows up across multiple yardsticks, not just one. We rank each company on book/price, earnings/price, cashflow/price, and EBIT/enterprise-value, average those ranks, and prefer the cheapest names trending up.
Variance Risk Premium Long
When the variance risk premium (the gap between implied vol and recent realized vol) is in the top 20% of its yearly distribution, equities tend to rally over the next 2-4 weeks as the overpriced hedges unwind.
VIX Contango Regime Long
When the 30-day VIX is meaningfully below the 90-day VIX (steep contango, ratio < 0.95), the equity market is in a calm risk-on regime. Go long SPY or high-beta names for 2-4 weeks.
Volatility Breakout
Trend-follow Donchian channel breakouts, but the breakout must be at least 1.5×ATR (volatility-sized) — the original Turtle Traders rule.
Volatility-Timed Trend
A moving-average crossover rule, but turned on only when the stock's recent volatility is in a regime where MA rules have historically worked.
volume dispersion reversal
When a stock's daily trading volume swings wildly, it is a sign that informed traders are active, and the recent price move tends to reverse.
volume shock reversal
When a stock trades on unusually heavy volume, the day's move is often just liquidity noise that gets reversed the next day.
vrp blended with term structure
Combine how overpriced a stock's options are with the shape of its volatility curve, buying when insurance is rich and the curve is healthy after a dip.
vrp confirmed by price action
When options are pricing in far more volatility than the stock has actually shown and it has already sold off, buy the rebound; fade the reverse after a run-up.
Vrp Turnover Corrected
Eksi-Roy (2025): the single-name VRP (realized minus implied vol spread) is contaminated by turnover-driven transient realized-vol shocks; applying a mean-reversion correction to realized vol and/or excluding abnormal-turnover names raises Backtest uses…
vwap reversion
When a stock closes far away from its average traded price for the day, it tends to drift back toward that average.
Weekly Reversal
After a stock has a particularly bad or good 5-day stretch (vs its own history), the move tends to partially reverse over the next 1-2 weeks. Buy the steepest 5-day losers; short the biggest 5-day winners.
Combined Strategies
25 strategiesStrategies that blend several of the others into one signal and switch between them as market conditions change.
Auto-Weighted Blend
Per-ticker automatically learned blend weights with cross-validation + random-shuffle + luck-adjusted scoring gating. Instead of equal-weighting the top-3 strategies, an optimizer searches over how many to blend, which to pick, how much weight to give each,…
Best-Strategy Overlay
Take the user's best historical strategy for this ticker, then stack additional regime filters (VIX, sector trend, short flow) on top to clean up its bad bars.
Champion Disagreement Filter
We have dozens of in-house champion strategies per ticker. When they all disagree on direction, that disagreement itself flags regime uncertainty — fade extremes.
Cit Unwind Velocity Volatility Regime
When commodity-index traders flip positions fast, vol spikes are coming — size down other commodity strategies for a few weeks.
Cme Silver Gold Ratio Regime
When silver outperforms gold, industrial miners rally. When gold outperforms, the market is in safe-haven mode — go GLD only.
Combo Amihud X Industry Lead Lag
Combines two production families that almost never agree: a stock that's both thin-traded and lagging a sector that's beating the market is a textbook slow-diffusion setup.
Combo Amihud X Max Drawdown
Fallen-angel + illiquid stack - beat-up names that are also thin-traded recover with the highest hit-rate (75%) among any combo we found.
Combo Analyst Revision X Pairs Cointegration
Big gap up plus the stock is unusually cheap vs its sector ETF = double-confirmed drift entry.
Combo Bab X Low Volatility
Two independent ways to measure the leverage-constraint anomaly (low beta and low vol) - combining them is 21% sharper than either alone.
Combo Liquidity X Meta Hrp
Mean-reversion plus regime consensus from a multi-signal composite - fires hardest in high-VIX environments where the edge is structurally compensated.
cross-family hierarchical risk-parity blend
It spreads the bet across many of our best strategies for a stock, weighting each one so the overall mix stays balanced and steadier than any single strategy.
Equal-Weight Consensus
Instead of trying to optimize weights across sub-signals (which overfits), just equal-weight K canonical price signals. Hard to beat out-of-sample.
learned stacked-ensemble family blend
A machine-learning model studies how all our best strategies for a stock have behaved and learns the smartest way to combine them into one buy-or-sell call.
Macro Event Sentiment Composite
When news tone, the yield curve, and prediction-market recession odds all flash stress at the same time, we flatten the position to cash. The rest of the time we run a simple long-trend signal.
Multi Source Long Composite
When two or more independent bullish signals fire on the same stock within two months, the joint conviction is much stronger than any single signal.
Multi Source Short Composite
When two or more independent bearish signals fire on the same stock within a month, it's a much stronger short than any single signal alone.
Regime Filter: Below 200-Day Average
When SPY closes below its 200-day MA, this gate forces position to 0 — derived from cluster #5 of the champion-failure mining run; lowest-confidence of the five promoted gates.
Regime Filter: Market Pullback
When SPY is more than 10% off its trailing-year high, this gate forces position to 0 — derived from a cluster of champions whose failures all land in those windows.
Regime Filter: Pre-Fed-Meeting
In the 3 trading days before each FOMC meeting, this gate forces position to 0 — derived from a cluster of champions whose failures cluster in that pre-announcement window.
Regime Filter: Stormy Market
When the the market-regime model benchmark regime classifies the market as bear/storm/volatile, this gate forces position to 0 — the highest-AUROC of the five champion-failure gates.
Regime Filter: Volatility Spike
When VIX spikes more than 1σ above its 60d mean, this gate forces position to 0 — derived from a cluster of champions whose failures all land on those days.
Regime Router
Different alpha sleeves win in different regimes — trend in calm markets, reversion in choppy markets, defense in crises. This routes between them.
Risk-Balanced Blend
Instead of equal-weighting our internal sub-signals, cluster them by how correlated their returns are and give each cluster a proportionate slice of the risk budget. Stable, classic Lopez de Prado allocator that systematically beats naive 1/N out-of-sample.
Short-Squeeze Composite
Combines three squeeze precursors (borrow rate + SEC threshold list + Wikipedia attention) into one composite — when all three fire, squeeze is loaded.
Strategy Ensemble
When no single strategy clearly wins, we combine the best three TA strategies with the best three alpha-family strategies — half-and-half — and use that blend as the champion. On stocks where every individual strategy was failing, the blend rescued 2 out of 3…
Want to see them score a real ticker?
Every family above runs nightly against the full universe. Open a stock page and the ones currently firing will sit at the top of the conviction stack.