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Transcript Guidance Shift

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

In plain terms

Counts direction-specific words ('expect', 'headwind', etc.) on the call and z-scores them — guidance shifts predict price drift.

How it works

Bowen-Davis-Matsumoto 2002 + Demers-Vega 2010: keyword markers of guidance direction predict drift. We count occurrences of direction-specific phrases per call (RAISE words: "raised guidance", "increased outlook", "exceeding expectations"; LOWER words: "lowered guidance", "reduced outlook", "miss expectations") and z-score (raise_count − lower_count) within own history. Long when net raise > 1 SD; short when net lower > 1 SD.

Live results

1 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (1 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (1 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Earnings call transcripts
Full earnings-call transcripts (prepared + Q&A), tokenised.

Expected edge

See the source research for the original effect size; a modern replication on new data may be weaker.

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