Price & Market BehaviorCore researchlive in production

Crowded-Trade Reversal

Updated quarterlyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

In plain terms

Stocks that mutual funds are forced to buy/sell because of THEIR OWN clients (not fundamentals) revert over 1-3 months. Fade crowded names.

How it works

Stocks that mutual funds + 13F filers are forced to buy/sell because of their own client flows (not because of fundamentals) experience reversal over the subsequent 1-3 months. Heavily-owned-by-active-funds names underperform after extreme inflows; lightly-owned names outperform after extreme outflows. Proxied via quarter-over-quarter change in 13F n_filers and total_shares — big jump in both = crowding-in (fade); drop in both = crowding-out (buy).

Live results

14 times picked on its own · 32 times inside a blend (31 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 32 such blended picks (31 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC 13f aggregate
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

See the source research for the original effect size; a modern replication on new data may be weaker.

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