Macrotier 2pilot

`hiring momentum`

cadence: Quarterlydata: medium

2014

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch 2014, J. Acc. Econ.

Mechanism

Hiring growth precedes earnings growth by 1-2 quarters. Firms aggressively hiring signal management's private info about demand.

Signal rule

YoY growth in headcount or job-posting volume per firm; long top decile size-controlled

Data dependencies

bls_qcew (quarterly)
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
company_careers_scrape OR linkup
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

4-6% ann. at firm level; weaker at industry level

Illustrative pattern only

NOT a backtest

Illustrative pattern only — see /app for live backtests and the actual current equity curve.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

META AMZN GOOGL

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

novy marx gross profitabilityAccounting

(Revenue − COGS) / total_assets — gross profitability — predicts cross-sectional returns as strongly as book-to-market, and has been the mainstream "profitability" leg of the FF5 model since 2015. Distinct from QMJ which composites profitability+growth+safety; standalone GP is the high-beta version that explains more of the

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hiring momentum