Price & Market BehaviorCore researchwaiting_dataNew

Jolts Hiring Momentum

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2014

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch (2014) *J. Acc. Econ.* — "Labor hiring, investment,

In plain terms

Industry-level: when BLS-JOLTS openings YoY surge >+20%, that industry's stocks outperform 1-2 quarters out — hiring leads earnings.

How it works

Belo, Lin & Bazdresch (2014) JAE "Labor hiring, investment, and stock return predictability": firms (and industries) with strong hiring growth tend to outperform over the following 1-2 quarters because hiring precedes earnings — management is acting on private information about demand. v1 is industry-level via BLS JOLTS supersector openings: long when YoY openings growth > +20% (strong sectoral demand), short when < −10% (sectoral contraction).

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Jolts industry openings
BLS Job-Openings & Labor-Turnover Survey at monthly cadence.
Stocks sector
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Tested over: 2001-2020

• LONG when industry openings YoY > +20% (strong sectoral demand).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

META AMZN GOOGL

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Gross ProfitabilityPrice & Market Behavior

Companies with high gross profit / total assets keep beating peers — it's the cleanest measure of 'is this business actually good'.

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