Macrotier 2pilotNew

`lobbying shock`

cadence: Quarterlydata: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2013

Chen, Parsley & Yang 2010 + follow-ups

Mechanism

Lobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.

Signal rule

z-score of QoQ change in lobbying spend per registrant; long top decile mid-cap

Data dependencies

senate_lda_filings
Raw Senate LDA quarterly lobbying-spend XML filings.
opensecrets_ticker_crosswalk
Mapping from OpenSecrets registrant names to tickers.

Expected edge

4-6% long-short historically; best in mid-caps

Illustrative pattern only

NOT a backtest

Illustrative pattern only — see /app for live backtests and the actual current equity curve.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LMT BA PFE

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

macro regimeMacro

Beyond `regime_overlay` (#10) which uses VIX + SPY trend, this family keys off the *macro* regime detected from FRED

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lobbying shock