Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew
Lobbying Shock
Updated quarterlyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short
SSRN
2013
SSRN preprint
Chen, Parsley & Yang 2010 + follow-ups
Read the paper →
In plain terms
Companies that sharply increased lobbying spend QoQ outperform 6-12 months later — management is signaling private belief in regulatory tailwinds.
How it works
Lobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
Live results
0 times picked on its own · 90 times inside a blend (87 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 90 such blended picks (87 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
Loading substrate evidence…
Data dependencies
- Senate lda filings
Raw Senate LDA quarterly lobbying-spend XML filings.
- Opensecrets ticker crosswalk
Mapping from OpenSecrets registrant names to tickers.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~6%/yr top-vs-bottom quintile (Chen-Parsley-Yang 2010)
- Tested over
- 1998-2008
4-6% long-short historically; best in mid-caps
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Lobbying Shock on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.