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Transcript Political Risk Hhvt

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2023

Hassan, Hollander, van Lent & Tahoun (2019) *Quarterly Journal of Economics*

In plain terms

Counts bigrams from a curated politics lexicon in transcripts. Firms whose calls spike in political-risk language hedge more and underperform.

How it works

Hassan-Hollander-van Lent-Tahoun (2019 QJE 134(4)) "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects." The authors build a political-bigram lexicon from training corpora (politics textbooks + party platforms) and score each conference call as the share of its bigrams that appear in the lexicon. The score predicts hedging activity, capex sensitivity to elections, and cross-sectional returns (long-short decile spread ~4-6% annualised, Sharpe 0.6-0.8 in the 2023/2024 updates).

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 17 times inside a blend (16 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 17 such blended picks (16 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Earnings call transcripts
Full earnings-call transcripts (prepared + Q&A), tokenised.

Expected edge

Reported return: ~4% L/S decile spread (Hassan et al 2019)
Tested over: 2002-2016

The score predicts hedging activity, capex sensitivity to elections, and — in the 2023/2024 updates (Hassan-Schreger- Schwedeler-Tahoun JF 2023) — cross-sectional returns: long-short decile spread ≈ 4–6% annualised, Sharpe 0.6–0.8.

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