Real-World & Alternative DataCore researchInvalid

Attention Spike

Updated weeklyData needs: lowshort onlylong onlylong short

In plain terms

When Google searches for a ticker spike abnormally, retail piles in and pushes the price up for about two weeks. That attention-driven run-up then unwinds over the following six to twelve months, so the strategy rides the pop and later shorts the fade.

How it works

Da-Engelberg-Gao 2011 "In Search of Attention": abnormal Google search volume (SVI z-score over a trailing 52-week baseline; a documented deviation from the paper's ASVI = log(SVI) - log(median of prior 8 weekly SVIs)) predicts a SHORT-RUN ATTENTION PREMIUM: when SVI z spikes above threshold, retail buying pressure lifts the stock over the next ~2 weeks (~3% in the paper), and the run-up then mean-reverts over ~6-12 months. Strongest in retail-heavy names (small/mid-cap, IPOs, meme stocks). Implemented as: long the spike for ~2 weeks (holds 5/10/15d), plus a delayed reversal short entered ~2 weeks after the spike and held ~6 months (126 bars). Trends is weekly; week-start values are shifted +7d before forward-filling onto the daily price index so each reading is tradeable only after its week completes. The paper's news/earnings-catalyst control is NOT implemented. The harness's random-shuffle test gates the small per-name edge.

Live results

18 times picked on its own · 137 times inside a blend (133 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 137 such blended picks (133 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Google trends svi
Google search-volume index for the ticker as keyword.

Expected edge

Reported return: ~3% on 2-week long; 6-month short basket
Tested over: 2004-2008 (Da-Engelberg-Gao)

2-week long for spike, 6-month short basket for unwinding (Da-Engelberg-Gao 2011)

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

GME AMC MSTR

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Wikipedia Attention SpikeReal-World & Alternative Data

Abnormal Wikipedia pageviews for a ticker predict a 2-week rally then a year-out reversal. Cleaner than Google Trends per Pyun 2024.

Transcript Finbert Qa DispersionFilings, Insiders & Ownership

Listens to how steady management's tone is during analyst Q&A. If answers swing between confident and defensive, it usually signals trouble ahead.

Explore Attention Spike on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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