Network-Effectstier 2pilotNew

patent innovation premium

cadence: Quarterlydata: mediumlong only
QJE
2008
Quarterly J. of Economics
Kogan, Papanikolaou, Seru & Stoffman 2017, QJE (extended to 2024)
Read the paper →

Mechanism

Patent values inferred from 3-day stock reaction to USPTO grant. Firms with high value of recently granted patents (relative to market cap) outperform by ~3-5%/yr — real options on growth the market under-prices until citations validate.

Signal rule

rolling 12m patent_value/market_cap; long top quintile

Data dependencies

  • uspto_patentsview (free bulk)

    USPTO grant data with citation counts.

  • kpss_extended_csv

    Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

3-5% ann. long-short; survives most replication tests

Illustrative pattern only

NOT a backtest

Illustrative pattern only — see /app for live backtests and the actual current equity curve.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Explore patent innovation premium on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Learn more