Price & Market BehaviorCore researchlive in productionNew
Capex Spike Negative
Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlylong short
In plain terms
Top decile of capex-to-sales underperforms by 3-4%/yr — over-investment penalty.
How it works
Top-decile CapEx/Sales firms underperform; signal long bottom-quintile / short top-quintile.
Live results
5 times picked on its own · 8 times inside a blend (6 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 8 such blended picks (6 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
Loading substrate evidence…
Data dependencies
- Fundamentals
Quarterly fundamentals (income, balance, cash-flow) from FMP + SEC.
- Cash flows
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~3-4% ann. abnormal return
Titman-Wei-Xie 2004: ~3-4% ann. abnormal.
Explore Capex Spike Negative on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.