Census Ft900 Tariff Passthrough
In plain terms
U.S. imports surge MoM → retailer margin pressure in 1-2 months → SHORT TGT/BBY/LULU/AAPL/WMT.
How it works
World-imports MoM > +8% → importer COGS spike → 30-60d margin compression → SHORT exposed retailers (Amiti et al 2019 pass-through channel).
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Census ft900
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -2% to -4%
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+60d
-2% to -4% over 60d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When U.S. monthly imports are surging year-over-year, import-reliant retailers tend to restock and may see firmer demand a quarter later, so the strategy leans long on the import surge and short on the pullback. This is an internal macro heuristic, not a published-paper result: the data only supports a single national-imports signal, not the per-category (apparel vs electronics vs toys) split the cohort labels suggest.
Port LA inbound TEU surges → TGT/BBY/WMT inventory glut → SHORT for 1-2 months.
Explore Census Ft900 Tariff Passthrough on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.