Combo Amihud X Max Drawdown
In plain terms
Fallen-angel + illiquid stack - beat-up names that are also thin-traded recover with the highest hit-rate (75%) among any combo we found.
How it works
Deep-drawdown survivors that ALSO sit in an illiquid regime mark the textbook 'fallen-angel + thin-trading' setup where the illiquidity premium (Amihud 2002) and the tail-risk premium (Atilgan et al 2020) stack on the same stock. The miner's winning combo function is signed_product (magnitude-aware AND) - both signals must agree on the bullish reading for the combo to fire long. Hit-rate on positive-signal days is 75.2% - the highest among all top-30 pairs.
Live results
68 times picked on its own · 112 times inside a blend (99 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- lift=1.120x over either signal alone; hit_rate=75.2%
- Tested over
- 10-day forward
Combined IC=0.250 vs 0.22/0.22 for either alone - lift 1.12x. Hit rate on positive signals = 75.2% (top of the top-30).
Related families
Measures how much the price moves per dollar traded. Stocks costly to exit must pay investors more — long the illiquid names for the premium.
Stocks that suffered the deepest 1-year drawdowns earn HIGHER subsequent returns — compensation for tail risk.
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