Commodities#130tier 2live in productionNew

`dr copper industrial leader`

cadence: Weeklydata: lowlong onlyshort onlylong short

2014

Mu, X., Ye, H. (2014). "Industrial metals as leading indicators of equity sector returns." Journal of Commodity Markets.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Copper leads industrial stocks by 4-8 weeks.

Mechanism

Copper prices lead the industrial-sector equity bucket by 4-8 weeks.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag.

Signal rule

long cyclicals when 30d copper change z > +1; short when z < -1; hold 30/60d

Data dependencies

fred_macro
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: ~3-5% over 30-60d
Paper window: T+0 to T+60d

Mu-Ye 2014: ~3-5% over 30-60d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

XLI CAT DE FCX X

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

macro regimeMacro

Beyond regime_overlay (#10) which uses VIX + SPY trend, this family keys off the macro regime detected from FRED data: term-spread inversion (10Y−2Y < 0), credit-spread widening or compression (BAA−10Y z), and Fed funds cycle direction. Single-name version: gate the simple long-trend signal (SMA50 > SMA200) on the FRED macro regime — full long only in risk-on, half-size in neutral, flat in risk-off, short in inversion.

yield curve sector rotationMacro

Yield-curve slope (10y - 2y) gates cyclical vs defensive sector longs.

oil energy sector rotationMacro

Oil-price changes predict equity returns with a lag; strongest single-sector effect is on energy producers.