Eia Natgas Storage Surprise
In plain terms
Every Thursday EIA publishes US natgas storage. If the build is smaller than expected, natgas E&Ps (EQT, RRC, CHK) jump for 1-5 days.
How it works
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Thu 10:30am ET) is the dominant single-event-day driver for the natgas equity complex. The market trades the surprise vs same-week-of-year 5y mean: build smaller than expected (or draw larger) = bullish, natgas E&P basket re-rates up 1-5 trading days.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Eia natgas storage
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 80-150 bps per >1σ event
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+5d
Linn-Muehlenbachs document ~5-10% NG-futures move within 1d on a >1σ surprise; equity translation gives ~80-150 bps in the E&P basket over 1-5d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
NWS forecasts cold spike → long nat-gas E&P for 1-2 weeks.
EIA crude-storage surprise (vs consensus) → 1-5d energy move.
When crude oil or natural gas front-month prices have dropped more than 5% over the past six months, short the matching oil/gas producer stocks for 30 to 90 days. This is an internal price-trend heuristic, not the cited academic basis strategy (which our single-contract data cannot compute).
Explore Eia Natgas Storage Surprise on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.