FED Speech Tone Intraday
In plain terms
Hawkish Fed speech → SPY/QQQ drift down 1-3 days.
How it works
In-house adaptation of the central-bank-communication tone literature (Schmeling-Wagner 2025 JFQA; Gorodnichenko-Pham-Talavera 2023 AER 113(2); Lucca-Trebbi 2009 NBER WP 15367): Loughran-McDonald tone z of Fed speeches vs a trailing 60-speech baseline; hawkish speech day (z < -1) -> 1-3d index drift down, dovish mirrors up.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Fed speeches
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 10-40 bps
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+3d
Internally measured, not a paper-reported number. Schmeling-Wagner 2025 document that more negative central-bank tone lowers equity prices; the z<-1 threshold, 60-speech baseline, and 1/3d holds are internal choices adapted to the full Fed speech corpus.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore FED Speech Tone Intraday on alphactor.ai
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