Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew

Gpr Geopolitical Risk

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong only

paper

2022

Source

Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M. (2022). "Measuring Geopolitical Risk." American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

GPR spikes → long defense/oil/gold over 1-3 months.

How it works

Text-based newspaper-archive index of geopolitical risk; spikes precede defense/oil/gold outperformance.

Live results

1 times picked on its own · 6 times inside a blend (6 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 6 such blended picks (6 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Gpr index
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: 1-2% defense, 3-5% oil
Tested over: T+0 to T+90d

Caldara-Iacoviello 2022 AER Table 5/6.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LMT RTX NOC XOM NEM

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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Explore Gpr Geopolitical Risk on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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