Price & Market BehaviorExtended setlive in productionNew

implied volatility innovation drift

Updated dailyData needs: highlong onlyshort onlylong short
paper
2014
Source
An, B.-J., Ang, A., Bali, T. G. & Cakici, N. (2014). The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options. Journal of Finance, 69(5), 2279-2337.
Citation only, paper link pending.

In plain terms

When traders rush to buy bullish call options on a stock, it often rises afterward; when they rush to buy protective puts, it often falls.

How it works

Innovations (changes) in option-implied volatility predict the underlying stock's subsequent return through the separate call-IV and put-IV legs, not the net skew change. Rising call implied vol signals informed bullish demand; rising put implied vol signals informed bearish demand.

Live results

120 times picked on its own · 164 times inside a blend (156 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06
This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 164 such blended picks (156 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

  • Options surface daily

    End-of-day OPRA option chains used by IV-skew family.

  • Daily prices

    Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Captures informed option-demand flow before it shows up in the stock price, with separate call/put legs avoiding the conflated skew-change effect.

Related families

Explore implied volatility innovation drift on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Learn more