Filings, Insiders & OwnershipExtended setexperimental liveNew

Insider Post Runup Sell

Updated dailyData needs: lowshort only

2017

Larcker, D. F., Ormazabal, G., Taylor, D. J. (2017). Jagolinzer, A. (2009). "SEC Rule 10b5-1 and Insiders' Strategic Trade." Management Science.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When multiple insiders sell after the stock has rallied 20% or more from its 3-month low, that cluster of opportunistic sales tends to mark a near-term top. Short for 2-6 months. Routine sales unconditioned on price moves are noise.

How it works

The most informative insider SALES are those following a price run-up: insiders selling after a >=20% 90-day gain are signalling that they believe the run-up is unsustainable. Routine vesting / diversification / 10b5-1 scheduled sales are noise (per Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012).

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 89 times inside a blend (88 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 89 such blended picks (88 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC insider trades
Form-4 insider transactions with role, size, and trade direction.

Expected edge

Reported return: -4 to -7% over 90-180d
Tested over: T+1 to T+180d

Larcker-Ormazabal-Taylor 2017 / Jagolinzer 2009; ~-4 to -7% over 90-180d on the conditioned cluster.

Related families

Insider Cluster BuyingFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When several insiders buy their own stock within a short window (a 'cluster buy'), it's the most reliable insider signal. Sales are mostly noise.

Form4 Cluster AnomalyFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When 4+ insiders buy in a single month (a real cluster, not noise), the stock tends to outperform for the next few months.

Insider-Sale OverhangFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When insiders file large planned-sale notices, we short the issuer for the next few weeks.

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