Insider & Flow#411tier 2experimental liveNew

`insider post runup sell`

cadence: Dailydata: lowshort only

2017

Larcker, D. F., Ormazabal, G., Taylor, D. J. (2017). Jagolinzer, A. (2009). "SEC Rule 10b5-1 and Insiders' Strategic Trade." Management Science.

Read the paper →

What it checks

When multiple insiders sell after the stock has rallied 20% or more from its 3-month low, that cluster of opportunistic sales tends to mark a near-term top. Short for 2-6 months. Routine sales unconditioned on price moves are noise.

Mechanism

The most informative insider SALES are those following a price run-up: insiders selling after a >=20% 90-day gain are signalling that they believe the run-up is unsustainable. Routine vesting / diversification / 10b5-1 scheduled sales are noise (per Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012).

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Cluster of >=2 distinct insider Form 4 SELLs in trailing 30 days AND ticker is >=+20-30% above its 90-day low fires SHORT 60/90/180d.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
sec_insider_trades
Form-4 insider transactions with role, size, and trade direction.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: -4 to -7% over 90-180d
Paper window: T+1 to T+180d

Larcker-Ormazabal-Taylor 2017 / Jagolinzer 2009; ~-4 to -7% over 90-180d on the conditioned cluster.

Related families

insider form4Insider & Flow

Lakonishok-Lee 2001, Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012: corroborated insider purchases (Form 4 transaction_code='P') from multiple insiders within a short window are the single most-predictive insider signal — ~6%/year alpha over 6-12 months. Single-insider buys are noisy; cluster buys (3+ distinct insiders, or a single buy > $1M from CEO/CFO) are not. Long for 60 days on cluster buys; long for 30 days on a single $1M+ transaction. Sales are deliberately ignored — they're confounded by liquidity, diversification, and options expiry.

form4 cluster anomalyInsider & Flow

Anomaly-tail Form 4 insider PURCHASE clusters (>=4 distinct insiders within 30 days, or >=3 insiders with aggregate dollar value >= $2M) strip routine-liquidity noise that dominates single-insider buys. Long the issuer 60-180d post-cluster.

form 144 overhang shortInsider & Flow

Form 144 notices reveal planned restricted/control-share sales. Large notices can create supply overhang before actual Form 4 execution appears.

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insider post runup sell