Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew

IPO Lockup Expiry Short

Updated eventData needs: lowshort only

2001

Field, L. C., Hanka, G. (2001). "The Expiration of IPO Share Lockups." Journal of Finance 56(2), 471-500. Ofek, E., Richardson, M. (2000). Brav-Gompers (2003) JF.

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In plain terms

Standard IPO lockups expire 180 days after the offering. The flood of newly tradable shares from insiders and VCs creates supply pressure, so shorting the stock for 1-3 months after the lockup expires has historically produced consistent drift.

How it works

Standard IPO lockup is 180 days; insider and VC shares become freely tradable on expiry. The supply shock from newly-unlocked shares exceeds demand, producing measurable negative drift in the post-expiry window. Ofek-Richardson 2000 and Brav-Gompers 2003 confirm with stronger persistence for VC-backed deals.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC s1 filings
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: -2% at expiry, persists 30-60d
Tested over: T+1 to T+90d post-expiry

Field-Hanka 2001; ~-2% at expiry persisting 30-60d, up to -15% over 6mo for VC-backed.

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