nft volume crypto proxy lead
What it checks
When NFT trading volume across marketplaces (OpenSea, Blur, etc.) surges 1 standard deviation above its 90-day trend, crypto-equity names like Coinbase and the miners tend to outperform over the next 1-2 weeks. We use NFT volume as the canary for retail speculative risk-on appetite.
Mechanism
NFT marketplace volume (aggregated across collections in nft_volume_daily) is a leading indicator of speculative crypto-equity demand. Rising NFT volume → COIN/MSTR/RIOT/MARA/HUT catch a bid 5-10 trading days later as retail rotates from JPEGs into liquid crypto-equity proxies; falling NFT volume drags the same names down.
Signal rule
Market-wide daily NFT volume = SUM(volume_eth) GROUP BY date; 7d-MA → 90d-trailing z-score; fire +1 LONG when z>+1, -1 SHORT when z<-1; 5/10d holds; lag-1 trading day for no-look-ahead.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
nft_volume_dailyWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- untested — internal
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+10d
Untested — internal. Target 50-150 bps annualized on the crypto-equity basket (COIN, MSTR, RIOT, MARA, HUT).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore nft volume crypto proxy lead on alphactor.ai
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