Weather#250tier 3live in productionNew

`nifc wildfire utility short`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumshort only

2026

Novel research — in-house discovery (alphactor 2026-05-20). Camp Fire (2018 PCG) and SDG&E (2007-08 SRE) inverse-condemnation precedents motivate the per-utility cohort.

Citation only — paper link pending.

What it checks

Big CA wildfire in PG&E / Edison / Sempra territory → that utility's stock drops for 2-4 weeks.

Mechanism

Active CA wildfire (>=25k acres, uncontained) inside PCG/EIX/SRE service territory → SHORT named IOU on PSPS + inverse-condemnation liability + credit-spread channel.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

acres>=25k + CA + uncontained → short PCG/EIX/SRE; hold 10/20d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
nifc_fires
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: -2% to -5%
Paper window: T+0 to T+20d

-2% to -5% over 20d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

PCG EIX SRE

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

wildfire acreage utility shortWeather

CA wildfires >50k acres drive negative drift in CA IOUs (PCG/EIX/SRE) via PSPS + inverse-condemnation liability.

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nifc wildfire utility short