Economy & PolicyExtended setexperimental liveNew

Peer Contract Shock Propagation

Updated dailyData needs: highlong onlyshort onlylong short

2016

Hoberg-Phillips 2016 JPE -- Text-Based Network Industries and Endogenous Product Differentiation.

In plain terms

When a TNIC competitor wins or loses a large government contract, the focal stock drifts in the same direction as the market recalibrates vendor revenue exposure.

How it works

A large federal contract win or loss at a TNIC peer propagates to the focal company with a lag as the market reprices revenue visibility for competing vendors in the same product-text cluster. TNIC similarity weights the shock magnitude.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 19 times inside a blend (19 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 19 such blended picks (19 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Tnic peers
Hoberg-Phillips text-based industry classification peer lists (annual).
Federal contracts
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Tested over: 1996-2011 (Hoberg-Phillips)

Peer contract shock propagation: ~1-2% 5-10 day return in the focal stock.

Related families

Peer Price Shock PropagationCompany Events & Earnings

When a close TNIC competitor has a large price move, the focal stock tends to follow in the same direction over the next 1-5 days as the market slow-processes the related news.

Peer Earnings Shock PropagationCompany Events & Earnings

When a TNIC competitor beats (or misses) earnings, the focal stock tends to drift in the same direction before its own announcement.

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