Peer Contract Shock Propagation
In plain terms
When a TNIC competitor wins or loses a large government contract, the focal stock drifts in the same direction as the market recalibrates vendor revenue exposure.
How it works
A large federal contract win or loss at a TNIC peer propagates to the focal company with a lag as the market reprices revenue visibility for competing vendors in the same product-text cluster. TNIC similarity weights the shock magnitude.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Tnic peers
Hoberg-Phillips text-based industry classification peer lists (annual).
- Federal contracts
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Tested over
- 1996-2011 (Hoberg-Phillips)
Peer contract shock propagation: ~1-2% 5-10 day return in the focal stock.
Related families
When a close TNIC competitor has a large price move, the focal stock tends to follow in the same direction over the next 1-5 days as the market slow-processes the related news.
When a TNIC competitor beats (or misses) earnings, the focal stock tends to drift in the same direction before its own announcement.
Explore Peer Contract Shock Propagation on alphactor.ai
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