polymarket election vol x sector
What it checks
When prediction-market election odds tilt one way, certain sectors (defense/energy vs healthcare/clean) lead.
Mechanism
Election prediction-market moves drive sector rotation: rising R-probability lifts defense/energy; rising D-probability lifts managed-care/clean-energy. The most-traded polymarket election market's YES price proxies the partisan tilt.
Signal rule
polymarket election YES >= 0.55 → LONG defense/energy (LMT/NOC/RTX/GD/XLE/XOM); YES <= 0.45 → LONG healthcare/clean (UNH/ICLN/ENPH/FSLR); hold 20/60d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
polymarket_marketsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
polymarket_prices_dailyWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 100-300 bps
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+60d
100-300 bps over 20-60d (limited by short Polymarket panel).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
polymarket resolution driftEvent-drivenIn the last ~5 trading days before a polymarket resolves, the YES price becomes noisy — microstructure flows, low liquidity, and asymmetric information distort the price. Extreme reads in the terminal window MEAN-REVERT to the lifetime volume-weighted fair value, NOT to the eventual outcome. The equity then follows the prediction-market direction.
polymarket iv skew spreadEvent-drivenPrediction-market YES probability vs equity-option-implied probability of the same binary event. When |P_polymarket − P_option_implied| > threshold and the equity has an options chain, take the cheaper-side equity position. Distinct from #206 polymarket_event_premium which compares against realized vol (0.5 baseline); this is the true Moonshot-C cross-instrument arb.
Explore polymarket election vol x sector on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.