Economy & PolicyCore researchexperimental liveNew
Repeat Layoff Acceleration Short
Updated eventData needs: lowshort only
paper
1998
Source
Hallock, K. F. (1998). "Layoffs, top executive pay, and firm performance." ILR 51(4); Farber, H. S., & Hallock, K. F. (2009). Labour Economics 16(1).
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In plain terms
Companies that lay off twice within six months are in a cost-cutting spiral; the stock underperforms.
How it works
A single layoff is noisy; a 2nd layoff at the same company within 180d signals the first round didn't fix demand and management is in a cost-cutting spiral. Hallock 1998 and Farber-Hallock 2009 both document the asymmetric short-side response on repeat events.
No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
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Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Layoffs fyi events
Public layoffs.fyi layoff announcements with company-to-ticker resolution.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 100-300 bps
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+60d
100-300 bps over 60d (modeled, sparse event family).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
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