Filings, Insiders & OwnershipCore researchexperimental liveNew

Routine Vs Opportunistic 10b5 1

Updated eventData needs: mediumshort only

2021

Larcker, Lynch & Tayan (2021) "Gaming the System: Three 'Red Flags' of Potential 10b5-1 Abuse", SSRN.

In plain terms

Routine insider sales are noise; opportunistic ones (one-off or right after a plan is adopted) tend to mark short-term tops.

How it works

Routine, evenly-spaced 10b5-1 sales carry no predictive information (insider pre-committed long before knowing the price path). Opportunistic sales — unscheduled, isolated, or quick-fire shortly after plan adoption — are where the negative drift lives. Short only the opportunistic subset.

Live results

15 times picked on its own · 28 times inside a blend (23 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 28 such blended picks (23 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
SEC insider trades
Form-4 insider transactions with role, size, and trade direction.
SEC insider 10b5 plans
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: ~-2-4% over 60d on opportunistic subset
Tested over: T+1 to T+60d

Larcker-Lynch-Tayan 2021 documents the opportunistic-subset asymmetry; mid-cap CFO/CEO opportunistic sales -2-4% over 60d.

Related families

Insider Cluster BuyingFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When several insiders buy their own stock within a short window (a 'cluster buy'), it's the most reliable insider signal. Sales are mostly noise.

Form4 Cluster AnomalyFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When 4+ insiders buy in a single month (a real cluster, not noise), the stock tends to outperform for the next few months.

Insider-Sale OverhangFilings, Insiders & Ownership

When insiders file large planned-sale notices, we short the issuer for the next few weeks.

Explore Routine Vs Opportunistic 10b5 1 on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

Open universe with this filter →Browse all 572 families