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Secondary Offering Dilution
Updated dailyData needs: mediumshort only
paper
1986
Source
Asquith, P., Mullins, D. W. (1986). "Equity Issues and Offering Dilution." Journal of Financial Economics, 15(1-2), 61-89. Also Mikkelson-Partch 1986 JFE.
Read the paper →
In plain terms
Shelf takedown surprise → stock drops 2-4% in a month.
How it works
Shelf takedowns (424B5) → -2 to -4% on announcement; continuation 30d.
Live results
0 times picked on its own · 12 times inside a blend (10 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 12 such blended picks (10 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
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Data dependencies
- SEC shelf takedowns
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -2 to -4%
- Tested over
- T+5d to T+30d
-2 to -4% CAR with 30d continuation.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Secondary Offering Dilution on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.