sga operating leverage
What it checks
Companies whose overhead costs (SG&A) are growing faster than revenue are sitting on a hidden problem: when revenue softens, those costs don't drop as fast, so earnings get squeezed. Short the stock when this gap widens beyond 5-10 percentage points.
Mechanism
SG&A is sticky: when revenue falls, SG&A falls less-than-proportionally. Firms where SG&A growth has outpaced revenue growth carry a hidden operating-leverage liability that compresses earnings on the next revenue softening (operating de-leveraging effect).
Signal rule
(SG&A_YoY - revenue_YoY) >= +5pp or +10pp on available_date fires SHORT 60/90/180d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
key_metricsWorker data table, see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- -3 to -6% over 6-12mo
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+180d post-disclosure
Anderson-Banker-Janakiraman 2003; -3 to -6% over 6-12mo on top-decile gap.
Related families
beneish m score shortQualityBeneish (1999, FAJ) built an 8-variable logistic-style index that flags firms likely to be manipulating earnings (DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, LVGI, TATA). M > -1.78 โ manipulator suspect. Beneish-Lee-Nichols 2013 FAJ confirm OOS the score predicts both SEC enforcement actions and forward underperformance. Used inside AQR's quality-minus-junk composite. Short-bias only โ long-side from very-negative M is historically noisy.
novy marx gross profitabilityQuality(Revenue โ COGS) / total_assets โ gross profitability โ predicts cross-sectional returns as strongly as book-to-market, and has been the mainstream "profitability" leg of the FF5 model since 2015. Distinct from QMJ which composites profitability+growth+safety; standalone GP is the high-beta version that explains more of the cross-section. Status: alive. Decay debate is whether the spread has narrowed (yes: 30-50%) but the sign is intact and replicable across vendors.
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