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TNIC Peer Guidance Spillover

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2008

Cohen, L., & Frazzini, A. (2008). Economic Links and Predictable Returns. JF 63:4. (Generalized to forward guidance text.)

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When TNIC peers raise/lower forward guidance, the focal firm tends to follow 1-2 quarters later.

How it works

Keyword-match guidance-up vs guidance-down phrases in TNIC peer transcripts. 90d rolling sum z over 252d -> directional focal.

Live results

2 times picked on its own · 15 times inside a blend (12 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 15 such blended picks (12 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Earnings call transcripts
Full earnings-call transcripts (prepared + Q&A), tokenised.
Entity graph edges
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Reported return: ~3-7%/yr
Reported Sharpe: ~0.6
Tested over: T+1 to T+63d

Cohen-Frazzini 2008 generalized to guidance text spillover.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

NVDA MSFT PFE TSLA LLY

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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Explore TNIC Peer Guidance Spillover on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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