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Usda Basis Inversion Ag Long

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only
paper
1949
Source
Extends: Working, H. (1949). "The theory of price of storage." American Economic Review. McNew, K. P. & Fackler, P. L. (1996). AJAE. Novel ag-equity passthrough — alphactor 2026-05-20.
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In plain terms

When cash grain trades above futures (negative basis), supply is tight — long DE/AGCO/MOS for a month or two.

How it works

Cash > futures (negative basis, i.e. basis inversion) signals supply tightness in the underlying grain. Translates into LONG ag-equipment + fertilizer equities over 20-40d as planting/storage pressure clears.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
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Data dependencies

  • Daily prices

    Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

  • USDA grain basis

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

  • Cme futures settle

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return
150-300 bps over 20-40d (modeled)
Tested over
T+1 to T+40d

Working 1949 + McNew-Fackler 1996 document basis as a real-time supply-tightness signal; equity passthrough is novel — modeled 150-300 bps over 20-40d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Learn more