Usda Basis Inversion Ag Long
In plain terms
When cash grain trades above futures (negative basis), supply is tight — long DE/AGCO/MOS for a month or two.
How it works
Cash > futures (negative basis, i.e. basis inversion) signals supply tightness in the underlying grain. Translates into LONG ag-equipment + fertilizer equities over 20-40d as planting/storage pressure clears.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- USDA grain basis
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Cme futures settle
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- 150-300 bps over 20-40d (modeled)
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+40d
Working 1949 + McNew-Fackler 1996 document basis as a real-time supply-tightness signal; equity passthrough is novel — modeled 150-300 bps over 20-40d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Usda Basis Inversion Ag Long on alphactor.ai
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