Real-World & Alternative DataExtended setInvalidNew

Wasde Yield Surprise

Updated monthlyData needs: mediumlong onlyshort onlylong short

2014

Lehecka, G. V. (2014). "The value of USDA crop progress and condition information." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 39(1), 88-105. Also Adjemian 2012 AJAE.

Read the paper →

In plain terms

USDA WASDE yield surprises: an upside surprise (bumper crop, cheaper grain) helps processor margins (ADM/BG/INGR/DAR) and hurts equipment demand (DE/AGCO); a downside surprise is the reverse.

How it works

Yield surprise vs prior estimate -> 1-3d grain futures move (Lehecka 2014 JARE 39(1); Adjemian 2012 AJAE document the futures reaction only); the equity cohort mapping is this family's proxy extension: processors benefit from lower input costs, equipment makers suffer from lower aggregate farm revenue.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
USDA wasde yields
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: 1-3% futures
Tested over: T+0 to T+20d

Futures 1-3%, equities 5-20d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

ADM BG INGR DE AGCO

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Enso OniReal-World & Alternative Data

Strong El Niño/La Niña shocks soft commodities → ag stocks rally 3-6 months.

Drought Pdsi AgribusinessReal-World & Alternative Data

Long-running farm-belt drought → long water utilities + seed; short food processors.

Explore Wasde Yield Surprise on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

Open universe with this filter →Browse all 642 families