Sentimenttier 2exploratory

`wayback homepage change`

cadence: Dailydata: low

Implied from RenTec / Two Sigma alt-data culture (DE Shaw, Eagle Alpha, Crimson Hexagon variants)

What it checks

A large month-over-month change to the corporate homepage often precedes a product launch or exec change. Low-confidence pilot signal.

Mechanism

Marketing/product-launch URLs appearing on the homepage precede product-revenue inflection. New CEO/CFO bios appearing predict regime change.

Signal rule

daily diff of company IR/marketing pages via Wayback CDX; classify product-launch vs minor edit

Data dependencies

wayback_cdx_api
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: internal — no paper baseline (anecdotal pilot)

Anecdotal — pilot required before sizing. Lower confidence.

Illustrative pattern only

NOT a backtest

Illustrative pattern only — see /app for live backtests and the actual current equity curve.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

TSLA AAPL NVDA

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

wikipedia attention spikeSentiment

Da-Engelberg-Gao (2011 JF) "In Search of Attention" established that abnormal retail attention predicts a 2-week price run-up followed by a year-out reversal. Pyun (2024, SSRN 5172055) extends the work to Wikipedia pageviews and shows the Wiki signal dominates Google Trends in OOS tests — no rate limit, no normalisation-window confound, cleaner page identity per company. Signal is log(views / 90d median); long on >σ spikes for 2 weeks, short the reversal at 6 months when no earnings event explains the spike.

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wayback homepage change