Economy & PolicyExtended setExperimentalNew

Acled Red Sea Freight Premium

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2017

Extends: Adland, R., Cariou, P., Wolff, F.-C. (2017). "What makes a freight market index? An empirical analysis of vessel fixtures in the offshore market." Transportation Research Part E. Bab-el-Mandeb/Suez chokepoint specification is novel (alphactor 2026-05-20).

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When conflict heats up around the Red Sea / Suez (Yemen / Saudi / Egypt), freight rates spike and dry-bulk + tanker stocks rally.

How it works

Conflict events in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — particularly along the Red Sea / Suez Canal / Bab-el-Mandeb shipping corridor — push spot freight rates higher. Insurance premiums spike, vessels reroute around Cape of Good Hope (~10-14 days transit), and the dry-bulk + tanker basket re-rates positively on spread expansion.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (1 beat the stock) · updated 2026-07-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (1 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Acled events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: +1% to +2% over 20d
Tested over: T+0 to T+20d

Target +75 to +200 bps over 20d on qualifying fires (~4-10 per year).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

SBLK ZIM GOGL STNG DAC FRO EURN

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Baltic Dry Ais ProxyReal-World & Alternative Data

NOAA AIS shows dry-bulk shipping accelerate → shippers + miners rally 1-2 months.

Clarkson Shipping IndexReal-World & Alternative Data

Tanker spot rates run hot → tanker and LNG shipping stocks rally a month or two later.

Acled Oil Supply Shock LongEconomy & Policy

When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.

Explore Acled Red Sea Freight Premium on alphactor.ai

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