Acled Red Sea Freight Premium
In plain terms
When conflict heats up around the Red Sea / Suez (Yemen / Saudi / Egypt), freight rates spike and dry-bulk + tanker stocks rally.
How it works
Conflict events in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — particularly along the Red Sea / Suez Canal / Bab-el-Mandeb shipping corridor — push spot freight rates higher. Insurance premiums spike, vessels reroute around Cape of Good Hope (~10-14 days transit), and the dry-bulk + tanker basket re-rates positively on spread expansion.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Acled events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- +1% to +2% over 20d
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+20d
Target +75 to +200 bps over 20d on qualifying fires (~4-10 per year).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
NOAA AIS shows dry-bulk shipping accelerate → shippers + miners rally 1-2 months.
Tanker spot rates run hot → tanker and LNG shipping stocks rally a month or two later.
When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.
Explore Acled Red Sea Freight Premium on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.