Geopolitical#229tier 2experimentalNew

`acled oil supply shock long`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2003

Extends: Hamilton, J.D. (2003). "What is an oil shock?" Journal of Econometrics 113(2). Also Kilian, L. (2009). "Not all oil price shocks are alike." American Economic Review 99(3). ACLED event-density specification is novel (alphactor 2026-05-20).

Read the paper →

What it checks

When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.

Mechanism

Conflict events in oil-producing countries (Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Yemen, Nigeria) raise the implied option value of held barrels (Hamilton 2003 / Kilian 2009 supply-shock channel). A z>=2σ spike in 7-day ACLED event count across MENA-oil + Nigeria drives a measurable LONG drift in US-listed integrated oil + refiner equities.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

7d ACLED event count in MENA-oil basket, z over 180d. z>=+1.5 → LONG basket. Hold 5/10/20d.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
acled_events
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: +1% to +3% over 20d
Paper window: T+0 to T+20d

Target +50 to +200 bps over 20d on qualifying fires (~5-15 per year).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

XOM CVX COP EOG MPC VLO OXY HES PSX

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

oil supply disruptionGeopolitical

Chokepoint disruptions (Hormuz/Red Sea/pipelines) → cross-asset: long E&P + tankers, short airlines + SPY.

acled conflict onset defenseGeopolitical

Large rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.

ofac sdn sanctions eventGeopolitical

New OFAC SDN action against country C imposes step-change cost on US firms with disclosed segment exposure to C.

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acled oil supply shock long