Acled Oil Supply Shock Long
In plain terms
When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.
How it works
Conflict events in oil-producing countries (Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Yemen, Nigeria) raise the implied option value of held barrels (Hamilton 2003 / Kilian 2009 supply-shock channel). A z>=2σ spike in 7-day ACLED event count across MENA-oil + Nigeria drives a measurable LONG drift in US-listed integrated oil + refiner equities.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Acled events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- +1% to +3% over 20d
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+20d
Target +50 to +200 bps over 20d on qualifying fires (~5-15 per year).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.
Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.
OFAC adds new country/entity to sanctions list → US firms with disclosed business there underperform 1-3 weeks.
Explore Acled Oil Supply Shock Long on alphactor.ai
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