Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew

Oil Supply Disruption

Updated dailyData needs: highlong onlyshort only
paper
2009
Source
Kilian, L. (2009). "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike." American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053-1069. Also Kilian-Park 2009 IER.
Read the paper →

In plain terms

Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.

How it works

Chokepoint disruptions (Hormuz/Red Sea/pipelines) → cross-asset: long E&P + tankers, short airlines + SPY.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
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Data dependencies

  • Daily prices

    Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

  • Oil chokepoint events

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

  • Acled events

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

  • Ofac sdn

    A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return
+3% to +12%
Reported Sharpe
~0.5
Tested over
T+0 to T+30d

+3% to +12% on E&P/tankers; -2% to -4% on airlines.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Explore Oil Supply Disruption on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Learn more