acled conflict onset defense
What it checks
Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.
Mechanism
Large rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.
Signal rule
30d fatality z >= +1 → long defense basket; hold 5/30d
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
acled_eventsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +2% to +5%
- Paper Sharpe
- ~0.5
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+30d
+2% to +5% over 30d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
gpr geopolitical riskGeopoliticalText-based newspaper-archive index of geopolitical risk; spikes precede defense/oil/gold outperformance.
sipri defense spendingGeopoliticalTop-quintile global YoY defense-spend growth → US primes outperform 90-180d.
terror event airline driftGeopoliticalTerror events in US/EU last 5d → 3-5% drawdown in airlines/cruises/hotels; mild recovery in P&C.
Explore acled conflict onset defense on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.