Geopolitical#155tier 3live in productionNew
sipri defense spending
cadence: Annualdata: lowlong only
paper
2016
Source
Apergis, N., Apergis, E. (2016). "The 11/13 Paris Terrorist Attacks and Stock Prices." Finance Research Letters, 17, 186-192. Also Aizenman-Glick 2006 JITED.
Read the paper →
What it checks
Rising NATO/global defense spend → long US primes.
Mechanism
Top-quintile global YoY defense-spend growth → US primes outperform 90-180d.
No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag.
Signal rule
Annual global milex YoY rolling-10y top-quintile → long LMT/RTX/NOC/GD; hold 90/180d
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
sipri_milexWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 50 bps/mo
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+180d
50 bps/month excess over 6-12mo.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore sipri defense spending on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.