Company Events & EarningsExtended setexperimental liveNew
Adcomm Split Vote Short
Updated dailyData needs: mediumshort only
paper
2010
Source
Carpenter, D., Chattopadhyay, J., Moffitt, S. & Nall, C. (2010). "The Complications of Controlling Agency Time Discretion: FDA Review Deadlines and Postmarket Drug Safety." American Political Science Review, 105(4), 644-666.
Read the paper →
In plain terms
When a drug's FDA review keeps getting delayed (3+ different target dates), we short the sponsor for the next 1-2 months.
How it works
Contested FDA AdComm reviews (split votes, e.g. 7-6) predict final-PDUFA rejection more often than baseline; sponsor stock drifts negative 30-60d before action date.
No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.
Loading substrate evidence…
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Fda adcomm
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- above-baseline rejection
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+60d
Carpenter et al 2010: above-baseline rejection rate on contested reviews.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore Adcomm Split Vote Short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.