Event / FDA#330tier 2experimental liveNew

`adcomm split vote short`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumshort only

2010

Carpenter, D., Chattopadhyay, J., Moffitt, S. & Nall, C. (2010). "The Complications of Controlling Agency Time Discretion: FDA Review Deadlines and Postmarket Drug Safety." American Political Science Review, 105(4), 644-666.

Read the paper →

What it checks

When a drug's FDA review keeps getting delayed (3+ different target dates), we short the sponsor for the next 1-2 months.

Mechanism

Contested FDA AdComm reviews (split votes, e.g. 7-6) predict final-PDUFA rejection more often than baseline; sponsor stock drifts negative 30-60d before action date.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Drug crosses >=3 distinct PDUFA action-date revisions in fda_adcomm (contested-review proxy) -> SHORT sponsor T+1; hold 30/60 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
fda_adcomm
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: above-baseline rejection
Paper window: T+1 to T+60d

Carpenter et al 2010: above-baseline rejection rate on contested reviews.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

ABBV PFE BMY AMGN GILD

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

pdufa extension shortEvent / FDA

FDA PDUFA action-letter delay (Complete Response Letter or 3-month extension) signals additional analyses/trials are required; sponsor stock reprices -3 to -5% event-day with -2% drift over 30d.

fda adcomm pdufaEvent

FDA adcomm + PDUFA target-action dates are ±15% binaries.

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adcomm split vote short