fda adcomm pdufa
What it checks
FDA AdComm + PDUFA target dates are ±15% binary catalysts.
Mechanism
FDA adcomm + PDUFA target-action dates are ±15% binaries.
Signal rule
event-window position; hold 1/3d; both long_only and short_only variants
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
fda_adcommWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- ±15% binary
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+3d
Brogaard et al 2021: ±15% binary.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
clinicaltrials phaseiii readoutEventPhase 3 completion dates are forecastable; pre-readout long-vol premium.
event awareEventThis generator pairs a base trend signal with an earnings-blackout filter: no entries within ±N bars of an earnings announcement, where IV/realized mismatch typically washes out edge. Base signal is a simple 200-day moving-average trend, gated off during earnings-blackout windows of 3 or 7 trading days on either side of the announcement.
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