Event#157tier 2live in productionNew

`clinicaltrials phaseiii readout`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2021

Brogaard, J., Gerard, B., Walsh, M. (2021). "Phase III Trial Readouts and Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Phase 3 binary readout: long-vol premium for 5 days pre-event.

Mechanism

Phase 3 completion dates are forecastable; pre-readout long-vol premium.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag.

Signal rule

open long 5d before completion_date when ctx.ticker = sponsor; hold 1/3/5d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
clinical_trials_phaseiii
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: long-vol
Paper window: T-5 to T+5

Brogaard et al 2021: long-vol premium pre-readout.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

MRNA REGN BNTX ALNY BMRN

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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clinicaltrials phaseiii readout