downtrend-gated analyst dispersion short
In plain terms
When analysts strongly disagree about a company's earnings and the stock is already in a downtrend, the strategy bets the price falls further.
How it works
Stocks with high dispersion in analyst EPS forecasts earn low future returns (the Miller optimist-holds mechanism plus short-sale frictions). Because that overpricing unwinds reliably only in downtrends, this regime-conditioned variant gates the dispersion short to fire only when the name trades below its 200d SMA and sits flat in uptrends, rather than flipping direction.
Data dependencies
- Analyst estimates
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
High analyst-forecast disagreement signals overpriced names whose decline materializes mainly in downtrends, so gating the short to bearish regimes captures the edge without fighting momentum melt-ups.
Related families
When analysts strongly disagree about a company's earnings (wide high-low range vs the consensus), the stock tends to underperform.
When analyst EPS estimates spread WAY wider than usual for a stock (top z-score over the trailing year), it's a stronger signal of unresolved disagreement than just the absolute level. Short the stock for 1-3 months.
When analysts disagree widely on a stock's earnings, it's overpriced (pessimists can't short-sell in size). Short high-dispersion, long low-dispersion.
Explore downtrend-gated analyst dispersion short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.