auto recall drift short
What it checks
When a carmaker has an unusually large recall wave, we short the stock for the next few weeks.
Mechanism
NHTSA recall clusters create warranty-cost, brand, and regulatory overhang for auto manufacturers. A high z-score in affected units triggers a short signal.
Signal rule
Recall affected-units z-score >= 2 for a ticker -> SHORT; hold 10/20/40 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
nhtsa_vehicle_recallsNHTSA vehicle recall campaign data mapped to auto manufacturers.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- untested - internal
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+40d
Untested internal event family; target 50-150 bps over 10-40d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
product review velocityAlt-DataAmazon review-count 7d acceleration z > +1 → consumer-discretionary outperformance via revenue-surprise channel.
mdna tone deltaFilingsLoughran-McDonald 2011 JF demonstrate the *tone* of 10-K filings — positive vs negative finance-specific lexicon — predicts forward returns. Distinct from filing_text_delta's *uncertainty* lexicon. Effect: bottom-decile tone-delta underperforms top-decile by ~2-3% over 4 weeks, persisting ~12 weeks. Today consumes the cached Item 1 (Business) text; switches to Item 7 (MD&A) when the EDGAR pipeline emits it (tracked in docs/alpha-research/proposals/).
Explore auto recall drift short on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.