Economy & PolicyCore researchlive in productionNew

Congressional Trade Drift

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong onlyshort onlylong short

2013

#97 congressional_trade_drift — Ziobrowski 2004 / Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 / Belmont 2024 Stock-Act disclosures.

In plain terms

When several different members of Congress disclose buying the same stock within a 90-day window, follow the cluster. When they're selling, fade it. Single trades are noise — clusters of two-plus distinct members carry the signal.

How it works

US Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date — transaction_date would leak attention.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (0 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (0 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Congress trades
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: 12% Senate / 6% House abnormal returns historically; 3-8% post-disclosure-attention era
Tested over: 1993-2024

Ziobrowski 2004: 12% Senate abnormal annual returns 1993-1998; Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 House: 6%; Pelosi-tracker funds: 3-8% ann. 2020-2024 OOS.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

NVDA MSFT LMT

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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