Event#442tier 2live in productionNew
convertible refinancing distress
cadence: Dailydata: mediumshort only
paper
2024
Source
Industry mechanism: 8-K (1.01 material agreement + 2.03 financial obligation) cluster = convertible note issuance / debt refinancing / distressed exchange.
Read the paper โ
What it checks
When a firm files an 8-K announcing both a material agreement and a new debt obligation in the same window, it usually marks a convertible bond or distressed refi - bearish for equity.
Mechanism
8-K items 1.01 + 2.03 within 10 days = convert/refi cluster. +2.04 within 30d = covenant-trigger amplifier.
No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.
Signal rule
short focal post-cluster through 60/120/180d window.
Data dependencies
sec_8k_eventsItem-coded 8-K events (1.01 material agreements, 4.02 non-reliance, etc.).
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- ~5-15% per event
- Paper Sharpe
- ~0.5
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+180d
Convert/refi events ~5-15% drift down for distressed small-caps.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore convertible refinancing distress on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.