Company Events & EarningsExtended setlive in productionNew
SEC Shelf Takedown Dilution Pressure
Updated dailyData needs: lowshort only
paper
2024
Source
Industry mechanism: shelf takedown filings overhang the float and predict negative drift.
Read the paper →
In plain terms
When a firm files to issue new shares from its shelf registration, stock usually drifts down 1-3 months.
How it works
Each shelf takedown filing -> SHORT focal 21-90d. Cluster amplifier on >= N takedowns in trailing 90d.
Live results
0 times picked on its own · 23 times inside a blend (21 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 23 such blended picks (21 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.
How its picks scored vs. buy & hold
Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock
Where its edge concentrates
Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold
How often it trades
Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often
Return vs. buy & hold
How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)
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Data dependencies
- SEC shelf takedowns
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- ~3-8% per event
- Reported Sharpe
- ~0.5
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+90d
Dilution overhang ~3-8% per event; persistent across clusters.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore SEC Shelf Takedown Dilution Pressure on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.